ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

Real Madrid III vs Real Valladolid II

Real Madrid III Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Valladolid II Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Madrid III win
Real Madrid III winPick
47.9%
Draw
25.3%
Real Valladolid II win
26.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%

How much we know

Real Madrid III history55 matches
Real Valladolid II history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Real Madrid III are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,501 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Real Valladolid II score more

    1.24 goals a game over 55 matches for Real Madrid III, against 1.57 over 51 for Real Valladolid II.

  • Real Madrid III concede fewer

    Real Madrid III concede 1.25 a game, Real Valladolid II 1.71.

  • Real Valladolid II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Real Madrid III matches, against 65% for Real Valladolid II. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Madrid III
Real Valladolid II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.5
ELO
1500.4
55
ELO · Matches
51
1501.5
Current Team ELO
1500.4
1500.4
Current Opponent ELO
1501.5
1.12
Current ELO Difference
-1.12
0.50
Expected score
0.50
55
History Matches
51
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
50.01
Overperformance
50.55
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
51
1.33
PPG
1.22
36.4%
Win rate
31.4%
23.6%
Draw rate
27.5%
40.0%
Loss rate
41.2%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.1%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
24
1.41
PPG
1.21
37.0%
Win rate
33.3%
29.6%
Draw rate
20.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
45.8%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
27
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.24
Goals for per game
1.57
76.4%
Scoring rate
72.5%
58.2%
BTTS rate
58.8%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.38
81.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
63.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
55
History Matches
51
1.24
Goals Mean
1.57
0.95
Goals Std
1.46
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
1.71
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.4%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.88
81.5%
Conceding rate
87.5%
55
History Matches
51
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.71
0.92
Conceded Std
1.24
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.5%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
51
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.98
2.12
Stability score
1.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
50
14
Lead Matches
18
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.59
11
Trailing Matches
15
36.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
90.96
Rest days
87.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
26
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.26
77.51
Portability Score
79.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO1.12
PPG0.11
GF-0.33
GA-0.45
PPG0.20
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std-0.51
Scored 1+ rate3.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.60
Stability score0.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate3.0%
Trailing Win Rate11.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-2.06
Rest days3.69
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO1.12
Current Opponent ELO-1.12
Current ELO Difference2.24
Expected score0.00
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Madrid III

W
Real Ávila0–1Real Madrid III1 Nov · away
Pick: Real Ávila 48% · missed
L
Real Madrid III0–2Conquense25 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid III 38% · missed
D
RSD Alcalá0–0Real Madrid III18 Oct · away
Pick: RSD Alcalá 40% · missed
D
Real Madrid III1–1Guadalajara7 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid III 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Real Valladolid II

W
Real Valladolid II4–3Getafe II1 Nov · home
Pick: Getafe II 44% · missed
D
Guadalajara4–4Real Valladolid II25 Oct · away
Pick: Guadalajara 48% · missed
W
Real Valladolid II2–1Real Ávila18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Ávila 44% · missed
W
Real Valladolid II3–0Calvo Sotelo4 Oct · home
Pick: Calvo Sotelo 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Real Madrid III and Real Valladolid II meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Real Madrid III win 47.9%, draw 25.3%, Real Valladolid II win 26.7%. The pick is Real Madrid III win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.1%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.