ScoreProb
II Liga - East Poland Round 15 2026

Resovia Rzeszów vs Górnik Łęczna

Resovia Rzeszów Home · Elo 1,508
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Górnik Łęczna Away · Elo 1,429
Stadion Miejski w Rzeszowie Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Górnik Łęczna win
Resovia Rzeszów win
35.5%
Draw
25.1%
Górnik Łęczna winPick
39.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.8%
No41.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%

How much we know

Resovia Rzeszów history66 matches
Górnik Łęczna history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Górnik Łęczna are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Resovia Rzeszów are rated 79 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,429. On rating alone Resovia Rzeszów would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Resovia Rzeszów score more

    1.36 goals a game over 66 matches for Resovia Rzeszów, against 1.22 over 67 for Górnik Łęczna.

  • Resovia Rzeszów concede fewer

    Resovia Rzeszów concede 1.41 a game, Górnik Łęczna 1.72.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Resovia Rzeszów matches, against 57% for Górnik Łęczna. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Resovia Rzeszów
Górnik Łęczna
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.1
ELO
1429.4
66
ELO · Matches
67
1508.1
Current Team ELO
1429.4
1429.4
Current Opponent ELO
1508.1
78.61
Current ELO Difference
-78.61
0.61
Expected score
0.39
66
History Matches
67
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.96
Overperformance
46.99
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
1.70
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.68
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
67
1.23
PPG
0.90
28.8%
Win rate
19.4%
36.4%
Draw rate
31.3%
34.8%
Loss rate
49.3%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.1%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
29
1.20
PPG
0.69
26.7%
Win rate
10.3%
40.0%
Draw rate
37.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
51.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
93.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
48.3%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
30
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.22
77.3%
Scoring rate
76.1%
59.1%
BTTS rate
61.2%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.28
76.7%
Scoring rate
82.8%
53.3%
BTTS rate
75.9%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
66
History Matches
67
1.36
Goals Mean
1.22
1.15
Goals Std
1.00
77.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
34.3%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
7.5%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.41
Goals against per game
1.72
77.3%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.93
73.3%
Conceding rate
89.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
67
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.72
1.17
Conceded Std
1.14
42.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.2%
12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.9%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
67
1.00
Result entropy
0.94
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.59
0.45
Stability score
6.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
67
20
Lead Matches
19
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
42.1%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.53
16
Trailing Matches
28
12.5%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.29
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.34
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
32
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.40
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.07
55.21
Portability Score
59.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO78.61
PPG0.33
GF0.14
GA-0.31
PPG-1.00
PPG0.51
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate1.2%
Scored 2+ rate3.6%
Scored 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.66
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-5.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.72
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate27.9%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score-4.01
Rest days-0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO78.61
Current Opponent ELO-78.61
Current ELO Difference157.2
Expected score0.22
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Resovia Rzeszów

L
Legia Warszawa II2–1Resovia Rzeszów31 Oct · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa II 60% · hit
D
Rekord Bielsko-Biała1–1Resovia Rzeszów24 Oct · away
Pick: Rekord Bielsko-Biała 54% · missed
D
Resovia Rzeszów0–0Sokół Kleczew18 Oct · home
Pick: Resovia Rzeszów 47% · missed
L
Olimpia Grudziądz1–0Resovia Rzeszów12 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Grudziądz 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Górnik Łęczna

W
Górnik Łęczna3–0Znicz Pruszków31 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 38% · hit
W
Górnik Łęczna1–0GKS Katowice27 Oct · home
Pick: GKS Katowice 42% · missed
W
Lechia Zielona Góra0–6Górnik Łęczna24 Oct · away
Pick: Lechia Zielona Góra 53% · missed
L
Górnik Łęczna1–2Stal Stalowa Wola17 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 41% · missed
W
Górnik Łęczna3–1Chojniczanka Chojnice4 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 45% · hit

About this match

Resovia Rzeszów and Górnik Łęczna meet in II Liga - East on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Miejski w Rzeszowie. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Resovia Rzeszów win 35.5%, draw 25.1%, Górnik Łęczna win 39.4%. The pick is Górnik Łęczna win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.5%. Both teams to score: 58.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.