ScoreProb
1. Liga Latvia Round 26 2026

Rēzekne FA vs Smiltene

Rēzekne FA Home · Elo 1,370
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Smiltene Away · Elo 1,402
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Smiltene win
Rēzekne FA win
35.1%
Draw
17.0%
Smiltene winPick
47.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%
No37.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.0%
Under 2.533.0%

How much we know

Rēzekne FA history43 matches
Smiltene history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Smiltene are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Smiltene are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,402 against 1,370. On rating alone Smiltene would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Smiltene score more

    1.09 goals a game over 43 matches for Rēzekne FA, against 1.64 over 47 for Smiltene.

  • Defences are close

    Rēzekne FA concede 2.44 a game, Smiltene 2.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    70% of Rēzekne FA matches, against 77% for Smiltene. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rēzekne FA
Smiltene
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1369.7
ELO
1401.7
43
ELO · Matches
47
1369.7
Current Team ELO
1401.7
1401.7
Current Opponent ELO
1369.7
-31.94
Current ELO Difference
31.94
0.45
Expected score
0.55
43
History Matches
47
-0.15
Residual Mean
-0.11
39.60
Overperformance
42.38
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
2.40
Goals against per game
2.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
0.90
0.90
Goals for per game
1.80
2.30
Goals against per game
2.70
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
47
0.77
PPG
0.87
18.6%
Win rate
23.4%
20.9%
Draw rate
17.0%
60.5%
Loss rate
59.6%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.5%
69.8%
Over 2.5 rate
76.6%
37.2%
Over 3.5 rate
53.2%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
25
0.81
PPG
0.84
19.0%
Win rate
24.0%
23.8%
Draw rate
12.0%
57.1%
Loss rate
64.0%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
21
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.64
67.4%
Scoring rate
78.7%
62.8%
BTTS rate
70.2%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.48
71.4%
Scoring rate
76.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
68.0%
0.76
Goals for per game
1.24
58.8%
Scoring rate
64.7%
58.8%
BTTS rate
58.8%
43
History Matches
47
1.09
Goals Mean
1.64
1.05
Goals Std
1.36
67.4%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
30.2%
Scored 2+ rate
46.8%
7.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.4%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.44
Goals against per game
2.28
90.7%
Conceding rate
89.4%
2.10
Goals against per game
2.20
85.7%
Conceding rate
92.0%
2.82
Goals against per game
2.76
100.0%
Conceding rate
88.2%
43
History Matches
47
2.44
Conceded Mean
2.28
1.88
Conceded Std
1.58
60.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.0%
37.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
38.3%
2.10
Venue Conceded Mean
2.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.6%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
9.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.6%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
9.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
47
0.86
Result entropy
0.86
2.24
Goal Difference Std
2.26
14.03
Stability score
13.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
47
8
Lead Matches
11
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.70
19
Trailing Matches
25
15.8%
Non-loss rate
16.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
1.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.88
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
18
Normal Rest History Matches
21
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
0.29
PPG
0.59
5.9%
Win rate
11.8%
11.8%
Draw rate
23.5%
82.4%
Loss rate
64.7%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
52.9%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
17
Current Competition Matches
17
0.29
Current Competition PPG
0.59
-2.06
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.53
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.83
Portability PPG Range
0.49
54.77
Portability Score
67.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-31.94
PPG-0.10
GF-0.55
GA0.17
PPG-0.29
PPG-0.03
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate11.3%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate4.6%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.55
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.63
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score0.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.76
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate11.4%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate0.00
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.53
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.34
Portability Score-12.41
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-31.94
Current Opponent ELO31.94
Current ELO Difference-63.87
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rēzekne FA

L
JFK Ventspils8–0Rēzekne FA31 Oct · away
Pick: JFK Ventspils 69% · hit
L
JDFS Alberts5–0Rēzekne FA25 Oct · away
Pick: JDFS Alberts 85% · hit
L
Rēzekne FA0–1Rīgas FS II18 Oct · home
Pick: Rīgas FS II 42% · hit
L
Rēzekne FA1–6Valmiera / BSS30 Aug · home
Pick: Valmiera / BSS 80% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Smiltene

D
Smiltene1–1Mārupe31 Oct · home
Pick: Mārupe 53% · missed
W
Skanste1–3Smiltene24 Oct · away
Pick: Skanste 60% · missed
D
Smiltene2–2Riga FC II17 Oct · home
Pick: Riga FC II 41% · missed
L
Smiltene0–6Metta / LU29 Aug · home
Pick: Metta / LU 73% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rēzekne FA and Smiltene meet in 1. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rēzekne FA win 35.1%, draw 17.0%, Smiltene win 47.9%. The pick is Smiltene win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.0%. Both teams to score: 62.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.