ScoreProb
1. Liga Latvia Round 26 2026

Rīgas FS II vs Tukums II

Rīgas FS II Home · Elo 1,457
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tukums II Away · Elo 1,406
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rīgas FS II win
Rīgas FS II winPick
50.5%
Draw
17.3%
Tukums II win
32.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.2%
No37.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.4%
Under 2.530.6%

How much we know

Rīgas FS II history43 matches
Tukums II history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rīgas FS II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rīgas FS II are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,457 against 1,406. On rating alone Rīgas FS II would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Rīgas FS II score more

    1.60 goals a game over 43 matches for Rīgas FS II, against 1.38 over 42 for Tukums II.

  • Rīgas FS II concede fewer

    Rīgas FS II concede 1.84 a game, Tukums II 2.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Rīgas FS II matches, against 74% for Tukums II. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rīgas FS II
Tukums II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1457.0
ELO
1406.1
43
ELO · Matches
42
1457.0
Current Team ELO
1406.1
1406.1
Current Opponent ELO
1457.0
50.91
Current ELO Difference
-50.91
0.57
Expected score
0.43
43
History Matches
42
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.11
46.72
Overperformance
42.63
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
4.40
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.30
2.90
Goals against per game
3.10
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.10
3.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.62
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
42
1.23
PPG
0.83
32.6%
Win rate
23.8%
25.6%
Draw rate
11.9%
41.9%
Loss rate
64.3%
88.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
67.4%
Over 2.5 rate
73.8%
39.5%
Over 3.5 rate
52.4%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
21
1.36
PPG
0.67
40.9%
Win rate
19.0%
13.6%
Draw rate
9.5%
45.5%
Loss rate
71.4%
95.5%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
61.9%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.66
22
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.38
79.1%
Scoring rate
81.0%
62.8%
BTTS rate
69.0%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.19
90.9%
Scoring rate
71.4%
68.2%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.31
70.6%
Scoring rate
87.5%
64.7%
BTTS rate
75.0%
43
History Matches
42
1.60
Goals Mean
1.38
1.33
Goals Std
1.38
79.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
41.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.0%
25.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.84
Goals against per game
2.50
74.4%
Conceding rate
88.1%
1.64
Goals against per game
2.90
77.3%
Conceding rate
85.7%
2.82
Goals against per game
2.81
88.2%
Conceding rate
87.5%
43
History Matches
42
1.84
Conceded Mean
2.50
2.02
Conceded Std
1.99
53.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.9%
25.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.5%
1.64
Venue Conceded Mean
2.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
42
0.98
Result entropy
0.80
2.53
Goal Difference Std
2.73
1.82
Stability score
19.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
42
15
Lead Matches
7
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.76
9
Trailing Matches
19
22.2%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
1.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.75
Rest days
89.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.44
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
16
0.71
PPG
0.75
17.6%
Win rate
18.8%
17.6%
Draw rate
18.8%
64.7%
Loss rate
62.5%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
3.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.81
17
Current Competition Matches
16
0.71
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-1.47
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.87
Portability PPG Range
0.13
53.45
Portability Score
88.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO50.91
PPG0.40
GF0.22
GA-0.66
PPG-0.04
PPG0.70
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate10.9%
Scored 3+ rate13.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.66
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches1
Result entropy0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score-18.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate11.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.03
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range0.74
Portability Score-34.69
Rest days-13.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.98
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO50.91
Current Opponent ELO-50.91
Current ELO Difference101.8
Expected score0.15
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rīgas FS II

W
Super Nova 22–4Rīgas FS II31 Oct · away
Pick: Super Nova 2 54% · missed
L
Riga FC II3–0Rīgas FS II25 Oct · away
Pick: Riga FC II 57% · hit
W
Rēzekne FA0–1Rīgas FS II18 Oct · away
Pick: Rīgas FS II 42% · hit
L
Riga Mariners3–1Rīgas FS II29 Aug · away
Pick: Riga Mariners 85% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tukums II

D
Tukums II1–1Riga FC II31 Oct · home
Pick: Riga FC II 44% · missed
D
Valmiera / BSS2–2Tukums II18 Oct · away
Pick: Valmiera / BSS 88% · missed
L
Skanste6–2Tukums II30 Aug · away
Pick: Skanste 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rīgas FS II and Tukums II meet in 1. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rīgas FS II win 50.5%, draw 17.3%, Tukums II win 32.2%. The pick is Rīgas FS II win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.4%. Both teams to score: 62.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.