ScoreProb
1. Liga Latvia Round 26 2026

Valmiera / BSS vs Skanste

Valmiera / BSS Home · Elo 1,616
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Skanste Away · Elo 1,497
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Valmiera / BSS win
Valmiera / BSS winPick
72.8%
Draw
14.8%
Skanste win
12.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.6%
Under 2.524.4%

How much we know

Valmiera / BSS history30 matches
Skanste history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.8%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Valmiera / BSS are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Valmiera / BSS are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,616 against 1,497. On rating alone Valmiera / BSS would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Valmiera / BSS score far more

    2.70 goals a game over 30 matches for Valmiera / BSS, against 1.62 over 47 for Skanste.

  • Valmiera / BSS concede fewer

    Valmiera / BSS concede 1.33 a game, Skanste 1.62.

  • Valmiera / BSS games more often go over 2.5 goals

    80% of Valmiera / BSS matches, against 62% for Skanste. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Valmiera / BSS
Skanste
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1615.9
ELO
1496.7
30
ELO · Matches
47
1615.9
Current Team ELO
1496.7
1496.7
Current Opponent ELO
1615.9
119.1
Current ELO Difference
-119.1
0.67
Expected score
0.33
30
History Matches
47
0.17
Residual Mean
-0.01
60.39
Overperformance
49.58
0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.40
3.20
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.80
PPG
1.00
3.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.10
90.0%
Win rate
30.0%
3.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
30
Matches
47
2.13
PPG
1.43
66.7%
Win rate
40.4%
13.3%
Draw rate
21.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
38.3%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.7%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.2%
2.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
24
2.67
PPG
1.38
83.3%
Win rate
41.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
12.5%
0.0%
Loss rate
45.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.41
12
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.70
Goals for per game
1.62
90.0%
Scoring rate
74.5%
63.3%
BTTS rate
57.4%
3.58
Goals for per game
1.58
100.0%
Scoring rate
70.8%
58.3%
BTTS rate
58.3%
2.82
Goals for per game
1.82
94.1%
Scoring rate
70.6%
70.6%
BTTS rate
58.8%
30
History Matches
47
2.70
Goals Mean
1.62
1.79
Goals Std
1.59
90.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.5%
73.3%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.0%
3.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.62
70.0%
Conceding rate
80.9%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.88
58.3%
Conceding rate
87.5%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.94
70.6%
Conceding rate
88.2%
30
History Matches
47
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.42
Conceded Std
1.21
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.8%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.5%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
30
History Matches
47
0.78
Result entropy
0.97
2.68
Goal Difference Std
2.25
21.64
Stability score
3.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
45
15
Lead Matches
11
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.88
3
Trailing Matches
18
33.3%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
1.11
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
1.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
10
Normal Rest History Matches
18
2.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
19
Long Rest History Matches
28
2.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
2.59
PPG
1.18
82.4%
Win rate
35.3%
11.8%
Draw rate
11.8%
5.9%
Loss rate
52.9%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
82.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
58.8%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.72
17
Current Competition Matches
17
2.59
Current Competition PPG
1.18
1.94
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.12
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
1.02
Portability PPG Std
0.18
2.59
Portability PPG Range
0.36
32.88
Portability Score
73.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
30
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO119.1
PPG0.71
GF1.08
GA-0.28
PPG1.41
PPG1.29
PPG1.60
PPG1.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate29.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-17
Goals Mean1.08
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate15.5%
Scored 2+ rate30.8%
Scored 3+ rate33.0%
Venue Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.98
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score18.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.27
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate4.8%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate27.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.06
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.84
Portability PPG Range2.23
Portability Score-40.54
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.76
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.85
Current Team ELO119.1
Current Opponent ELO-119.1
Current ELO Difference238.3
Expected score0.33
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance10.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Valmiera / BSS

D
Leevon / PPK0–0Valmiera / BSS31 Oct · away
Pick: Valmiera / BSS 51% · missed
W
Valmiera / BSS3–0JFK Ventspils24 Oct · home
Pick: Valmiera / BSS 67% · hit
D
Valmiera / BSS2–2Tukums II18 Oct · home
Pick: Valmiera / BSS 88% · missed
W
Rēzekne FA1–6Valmiera / BSS30 Aug · away
Pick: Valmiera / BSS 80% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Skanste

L
Skanste1–2Metta / LU31 Oct · home
Pick: Metta / LU 69% · hit
L
Skanste1–3Smiltene24 Oct · home
Pick: Skanste 60% · missed
L
Riga Mariners4–3Skanste17 Oct · away
Pick: Riga Mariners 74% · hit
W
Skanste6–2Tukums II30 Aug · home
Pick: Skanste 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Valmiera / BSS and Skanste meet in 1. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Valmiera / BSS win 72.8%, draw 14.8%, Skanste win 12.4%. The pick is Valmiera / BSS win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.6%. Both teams to score: 58.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.