ScoreProb
1. Liga Latvia Round 26 2026

Super Nova 2 vs Riga FC II

Super Nova 2 Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Riga FC II Away · Elo 1,457
Sporta centrs Krasts Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Super Nova 2 win
Super Nova 2 winPick
46.7%
Draw
25.5%
Riga FC II win
27.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%
No42.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%

How much we know

Super Nova 2 history18 matches
Riga FC II history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Super Nova 2 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Super Nova 2 are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,457. On rating alone Super Nova 2 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 18 matches for Super Nova 2, against 1.36 over 42 for Riga FC II.

  • Super Nova 2 concede fewer

    Super Nova 2 concede 1.44 a game, Riga FC II 1.74.

  • Riga FC II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Super Nova 2 matches, against 62% for Riga FC II. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.8
ELO
1457.3
18
ELO · Matches
42
1499.8
Current Team ELO
1457.3
1457.3
Current Opponent ELO
1499.8
42.53
Current ELO Difference
-42.53
0.56
Expected score
0.44
18
History Matches
42
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.96
Overperformance
47.00
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
18
Matches
42
1.33
PPG
1.05
33.3%
Win rate
28.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
19.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
52.4%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.5%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
20
1.56
PPG
0.50
44.4%
Win rate
10.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
70.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
9
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.36
83.3%
Scoring rate
69.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
54.8%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.85
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
45.0%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.41
83.3%
Scoring rate
70.6%
66.7%
BTTS rate
58.8%
18
History Matches
42
1.39
Goals Mean
1.36
0.95
Goals Std
1.39
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.74
77.8%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.90
77.8%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.94
77.8%
Conceding rate
88.2%
18
History Matches
42
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.61
Conceded Std
1.18
27.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.5%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
18
History Matches
42
1.00
Result entropy
0.92
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.98
0.00
Stability score
7.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
42
8
Lead Matches
12
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.67
3
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.04
Rest days
74.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
6
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
11
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
17
1.33
PPG
1.18
33.3%
Win rate
35.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
11.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
52.9%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
18
Current Competition Matches
17
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.18
-0.06
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.53
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.11
—
Portability PPG Range
0.22
—
Portability Score
82.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
18
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO42.53
PPG0.29
GF0.03
GA-0.29
PPG0.16
PPG1.06
PPG0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-24
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate14.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-24
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std0.43
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.69
History Matches-24
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-7.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.16
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.47
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days1.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO42.53
Current Opponent ELO-42.53
Current ELO Difference85.05
Expected score0.12
History Matches-24
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Super Nova 2

L
Super Nova 22–4Rīgas FS II31 Oct · home
Pick: Super Nova 2 54% · missed
L
Super Nova 21–3Metta / LU17 Oct · home
Pick: Metta / LU 51% · hit
L
Leevon / PPK2–1Super Nova 229 Aug · away
Pick: Leevon / PPK 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Riga FC II

D
Tukums II1–1Riga FC II31 Oct · away
Pick: Riga FC II 44% · missed
W
Riga FC II3–0Rīgas FS II25 Oct · home
Pick: Riga FC II 57% · hit
D
Smiltene2–2Riga FC II17 Oct · away
Pick: Riga FC II 41% · missed
D
JFK Ventspils1–1Riga FC II29 Aug · away
Pick: JFK Ventspils 48% · missed
L
Riga FC II1–3Riga Mariners24 Aug · home
Pick: Riga Mariners 66% · hit

About this match

Super Nova 2 and Riga FC II meet in 1. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Sporta centrs Krasts. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Super Nova 2 win 46.7%, draw 25.5%, Riga FC II win 27.8%. The pick is Super Nova 2 win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.8%. Both teams to score: 57.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.