ScoreProb
Virsliga Latvia Round 36 2026

Riga vs Rīgas FS

Riga Home · Elo 1,757
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rīgas FS Away · Elo 1,722
Skonto stadions, Riga Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Riga win
Riga winPick
37.5%
Draw
27.5%
Rīgas FS win
35.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%

How much we know

Riga history94 matches
Rīgas FS history98 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Riga are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Riga are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,757 against 1,722. On rating alone Riga would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Riga score more

    2.54 goals a game over 94 matches for Riga, against 2.28 over 98 for Rīgas FS.

  • Defences are close

    Riga concede 0.94 a game, Rīgas FS 1.02.

  • Riga games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Riga matches, against 59% for Rīgas FS. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Riga
Rīgas FS
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1756.6
ELO
1721.9
94
ELO · Matches
98
1756.6
Current Team ELO
1721.9
1721.9
Current Opponent ELO
1756.6
34.71
Current ELO Difference
-34.71
0.55
Expected score
0.45
94
History Matches
98
0.13
Residual Mean
0.11
60.52
Overperformance
59.55
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.00
2.70
Goals for per game
2.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
94
Matches
98
2.36
PPG
2.22
73.4%
Win rate
70.4%
16.0%
Draw rate
11.2%
10.6%
Loss rate
18.4%
87.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
69.1%
Over 2.5 rate
59.2%
44.7%
Over 3.5 rate
43.9%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
46
2.43
PPG
2.15
76.1%
Win rate
67.4%
15.2%
Draw rate
13.0%
8.7%
Loss rate
19.6%
89.1%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
46
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.54
Goals for per game
2.28
94.7%
Scoring rate
88.8%
55.3%
BTTS rate
53.1%
2.70
Goals for per game
1.85
97.8%
Scoring rate
87.0%
47.8%
BTTS rate
52.2%
3.04
Goals for per game
2.50
96.2%
Scoring rate
96.2%
57.7%
BTTS rate
46.2%
94
History Matches
98
2.54
Goals Mean
2.28
1.61
Goals Std
1.68
94.7%
Scored 1+ rate
88.8%
71.3%
Scored 2+ rate
59.2%
52.1%
Scored 3+ rate
36.7%
2.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.02
57.4%
Conceding rate
63.3%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.02
47.8%
Conceding rate
65.2%
0.92
Goals against per game
0.77
57.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
94
History Matches
98
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.02
0.99
Conceded Std
1.00
27.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.02
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.2%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
2.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
3.8%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.2%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
2.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
94
History Matches
98
0.69
Result entropy
0.73
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.92
30.99
Stability score
26.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
94
Eligible Matches
97
55
Lead Matches
48
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.94
11
Trailing Matches
12
45.5%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
94
Halftime Coverage Matches
97
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
9
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.89
69
Normal Rest History Matches
73
2.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.29
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
26
Matches
26
2.50
PPG
2.54
76.9%
Win rate
80.8%
19.2%
Draw rate
11.5%
3.8%
Loss rate
7.7%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
84.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
61.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.3%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
26
Current Competition Matches
26
2.50
Current Competition PPG
2.54
2.12
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.73
11
Competition Season Count
12
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.04
54.10
Portability Score
54.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
94
Clean History Matches
98
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO34.71
PPG0.14
GF0.27
GA-0.08
PPG-0.04
PPG0.28
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate5.9%
Scored 2+ rate12.1%
Scored 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.54
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score4.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate20.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.38
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.29
Portability Score-0.61
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.11
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Current Team ELO34.71
Current Opponent ELO-34.71
Current ELO Difference69.41
Expected score0.10
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Riga

D
Ogre United0–0Riga1 Nov · away
Pick: Riga 76% · missed
W
Grobiņa2–5Riga26 Oct · away
Pick: Riga 75% · hit
D
Pafos1–1Riga22 Oct · away
Pick: Riga 44% · missed
W
Riga2–1Super Nova18 Oct · home
Pick: Riga 72% · hit
D
Riga1–1Kairat Almaty15 Oct · home
Pick: Riga 52% · missed

Rīgas FS

W
Rīgas FS3–0Grobiņa1 Nov · home
Pick: Rīgas FS 78% · hit
W
Super Nova0–3Rīgas FS25 Oct · away
Pick: Rīgas FS 64% · hit
W
Rīgas FS2–0Tukums19 Oct · home
Pick: Rīgas FS 81% · hit
W
Rīgas FS4–0Super Nova15 Oct · home
Pick: Rīgas FS 73% · hit
W
Ogre United0–3Rīgas FS30 Aug · away
Pick: Rīgas FS 71% · hit

About this match

Riga and Rīgas FS meet in Virsliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Skonto stadions, Riga. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Riga win 37.5%, draw 27.5%, Rīgas FS win 35.0%. The pick is Riga win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.9%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.