ScoreProb
Virsliga Latvia Round 36 2026

Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils

Super Nova Home · Elo 1,448
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
BFC Daugavpils Away · Elo 1,514
Slokas Stadions Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: BFC Daugavpils win
Super Nova win
32.4%
Draw
25.0%
BFC Daugavpils winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.7%
No43.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%

How much we know

Super Nova history71 matches
BFC Daugavpils history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why BFC Daugavpils are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • BFC Daugavpils are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,448. On rating alone BFC Daugavpils would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • BFC Daugavpils score more

    1.15 goals a game over 71 matches for Super Nova, against 1.32 over 79 for BFC Daugavpils.

  • Defences are close

    Super Nova concede 1.48 a game, BFC Daugavpils 1.59.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Super Nova matches, against 53% for BFC Daugavpils. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.8
ELO
1513.9
71
ELO · Matches
79
1447.8
Current Team ELO
1513.9
1513.9
Current Opponent ELO
1447.8
-66.09
Current ELO Difference
66.09
0.41
Expected score
0.59
71
History Matches
79
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
46.77
Overperformance
50.20
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.80
0.90
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
79
1.03
PPG
1.25
23.9%
Win rate
34.2%
31.0%
Draw rate
22.8%
45.1%
Loss rate
43.0%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
50.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
23.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
43
0.91
PPG
0.88
18.2%
Win rate
18.6%
36.4%
Draw rate
32.6%
45.5%
Loss rate
48.8%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.1%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.5%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
33
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.32
74.6%
Scoring rate
74.7%
62.0%
BTTS rate
58.2%
1.15
Goals for per game
1.14
78.8%
Scoring rate
72.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
62.8%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.22
76.0%
Scoring rate
70.4%
60.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
71
History Matches
79
1.15
Goals Mean
1.32
0.97
Goals Std
1.13
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.7%
28.2%
Scored 2+ rate
34.2%
9.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.7%
1.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
1.59
77.5%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.58
Goals against per game
1.88
75.8%
Conceding rate
81.4%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.15
76.0%
Conceding rate
70.4%
71
History Matches
79
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.33
Conceded Std
1.50
40.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.5%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.3%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.3%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
79
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.80
3.11
Stability score
2.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
77
14
Lead Matches
22
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
68.2%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.76
28
Trailing Matches
22
32.1%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
3.6%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.94
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
49
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
27
1.12
PPG
1.37
32.0%
Win rate
37.0%
16.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
52.0%
Loss rate
37.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
25
Current Competition Matches
27
1.12
Current Competition PPG
1.37
-0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.07
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.23
Portability PPG Range
1.04
84.12
Portability Score
54.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-66.09
PPG-0.22
GF-0.16
GA-0.12
PPG-0.25
PPG0.03
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate0.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score0.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate3.2%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate14.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.51
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.81
Portability Score29.83
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Current Team ELO-66.09
Current Opponent ELO66.09
Current ELO Difference-132.2
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Super Nova

D
FK Liepaja3–3Super Nova1 Nov · away
Pick: FK Liepaja 50% · missed
L
Super Nova0–3Rīgas FS25 Oct · home
Pick: Rīgas FS 64% · hit
L
Riga2–1Super Nova18 Oct · away
Pick: Riga 72% · hit
L
Rīgas FS4–0Super Nova15 Oct · away
Pick: Rīgas FS 73% · hit
D
Auda1–1Super Nova29 Aug · away
Pick: Auda 60% · missed

BFC Daugavpils

W
BFC Daugavpils2–0Tukums1 Nov · home
Pick: BFC Daugavpils 60% · hit
W
FS Jelgava0–1BFC Daugavpils25 Oct · away
Pick: BFC Daugavpils 45% · hit
W
BFC Daugavpils2–1Auda19 Oct · home
Pick: Auda 41% · missed
L
Grobiņa1–0BFC Daugavpils29 Aug · away
Pick: BFC Daugavpils 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils meet in Virsliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Slokas Stadions. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Super Nova win 32.4%, draw 25.0%, BFC Daugavpils win 42.5%. The pick is BFC Daugavpils win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.7%. Both teams to score: 56.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.