ScoreProb
Virsliga Latvia Round 36 2026

Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja

Grobiņa Home · Elo 1,431
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FK Liepaja Away · Elo 1,525
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FK Liepaja win
Grobiņa win
27.5%
Draw
24.1%
FK Liepaja winPick
48.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%

How much we know

Grobiņa history75 matches
FK Liepaja history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FK Liepaja are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FK Liepaja are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,525 against 1,431. On rating alone FK Liepaja would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • FK Liepaja score far more

    0.89 goals a game over 75 matches for Grobiņa, against 1.51 over 81 for FK Liepaja.

  • Defences are close

    Grobiņa concede 1.71 a game, FK Liepaja 1.58.

  • FK Liepaja games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Grobiņa matches, against 65% for FK Liepaja. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1430.5
ELO
1525.1
75
ELO · Matches
81
1430.5
Current Team ELO
1525.1
1525.1
Current Opponent ELO
1430.5
-94.54
Current ELO Difference
94.54
0.37
Expected score
0.63
75
History Matches
81
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
46.14
Overperformance
51.31
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
3.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
81
0.91
PPG
1.52
20.0%
Win rate
45.7%
30.7%
Draw rate
14.8%
49.3%
Loss rate
39.5%
69.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.7%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
40
1.14
PPG
1.35
25.7%
Win rate
42.5%
37.1%
Draw rate
7.5%
37.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
37.1%
Over 2.5 rate
67.5%
31.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
35
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.89
Goals for per game
1.51
60.0%
Scoring rate
74.1%
45.3%
BTTS rate
58.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.25
65.7%
Scoring rate
70.0%
51.4%
BTTS rate
57.5%
0.70
Goals for per game
1.33
51.9%
Scoring rate
70.4%
40.7%
BTTS rate
55.6%
75
History Matches
81
0.89
Goals Mean
1.51
0.97
Goals Std
1.24
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.1%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
49.4%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
17.3%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.71
Goals against per game
1.58
77.3%
Conceding rate
81.5%
1.43
Goals against per game
1.78
74.3%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.85
Goals against per game
1.44
81.5%
Conceding rate
85.2%
75
History Matches
81
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.53
Conceded Std
1.29
48.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.7%
24.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.43
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
48.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
81
0.94
Result entropy
0.92
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.99
5.98
Stability score
8.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
79
14
Lead Matches
26
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.8%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.85
29
Trailing Matches
32
31.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
3.4%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.83
Rest days
74.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
51
Normal Rest History Matches
54
0.84
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
27
Matches
27
0.78
PPG
1.37
14.8%
Win rate
40.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
14.8%
51.9%
Loss rate
44.4%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
27
Current Competition Matches
27
0.78
Current Competition PPG
1.37
-1.15
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.11
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.22
Portability PPG Range
0.63
84.06
Portability Score
70.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-94.54
PPG-0.61
GF-0.61
GA0.13
PPG-0.59
PPG-0.21
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate13.2%
Failed-to-score rate4.3%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.61
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.29
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Conceded 2+ rate7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.85
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-2.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.60
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate6.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.59
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.04
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.41
Portability Score13.85
Rest days4.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.30
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Current Team ELO-94.54
Current Opponent ELO94.54
Current ELO Difference-189.1
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Grobiņa

L
Rīgas FS3–0Grobiņa1 Nov · away
Pick: Rīgas FS 78% · hit
L
Grobiņa2–5Riga26 Oct · home
Pick: Riga 75% · hit
W
Grobiņa3–2Ogre United17 Oct · home
Pick: Grobiņa 50% · hit
W
Grobiņa1–0BFC Daugavpils29 Aug · home
Pick: BFC Daugavpils 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FK Liepaja

D
FK Liepaja3–3Super Nova1 Nov · home
Pick: FK Liepaja 50% · missed
D
FK Liepaja0–0Tukums24 Oct · home
Pick: FK Liepaja 58% · missed
W
FK Liepaja3–0FS Jelgava18 Oct · home
Pick: FK Liepaja 53% · hit
L
FK Liepaja2–3Auda12 Oct · home
Pick: Auda 40% · hit
W
FK Liepaja3–2Riga31 Aug · home
Pick: Riga 62% · missed

About this match

Grobiņa and FK Liepaja meet in Virsliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Grobiņa win 27.5%, draw 24.1%, FK Liepaja win 48.4%. The pick is FK Liepaja win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.7%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.