ScoreProb
Virsliga Latvia Round 36 2026

Tukums vs Auda

Tukums Home · Elo 1,400
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Auda Away · Elo 1,595
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Auda win
Tukums win
26.2%
Draw
21.5%
Auda winPick
52.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.9%
Under 2.543.1%

How much we know

Tukums history72 matches
Auda history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Auda are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Auda are rated 196 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,595 against 1,400. On rating alone Auda would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.24 goals a game over 72 matches for Tukums, against 1.37 over 81 for Auda.

  • Auda concede fewer

    Tukums concede 1.92 a game, Auda 1.20.

  • Tukums games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Tukums matches, against 46% for Auda. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tukums
Auda
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1399.8
ELO
1595.3
72
ELO · Matches
81
1399.8
Current Team ELO
1595.3
1595.3
Current Opponent ELO
1399.8
-195.5
Current ELO Difference
195.5
0.24
Expected score
0.76
72
History Matches
81
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.06
44.46
Overperformance
54.81
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
2.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.70
2.40
Goals against per game
0.90
10.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
81
0.86
PPG
1.62
19.4%
Win rate
46.9%
27.8%
Draw rate
21.0%
52.8%
Loss rate
32.1%
84.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.1%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
36.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
40
1.21
PPG
1.48
29.4%
Win rate
40.0%
32.4%
Draw rate
27.5%
38.2%
Loss rate
32.5%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.5%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.5%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
34
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.37
73.6%
Scoring rate
77.8%
63.9%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.15
85.3%
Scoring rate
70.0%
73.5%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.65
85.2%
Scoring rate
88.5%
81.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
81
1.24
Goals Mean
1.37
1.12
Goals Std
1.19
73.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
34.7%
Scored 2+ rate
38.3%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.3%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.92
Goals against per game
1.20
86.1%
Conceding rate
63.0%
1.62
Goals against per game
1.35
85.3%
Conceding rate
67.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
96.3%
Conceding rate
57.7%
72
History Matches
81
1.92
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.33
Conceded Std
1.26
58.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
30.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
1.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
3.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
13.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
13.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
81
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.85
7.93
Stability score
4.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
79
18
Lead Matches
26
44.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.8%
0.54
Lead Points Retention
0.87
30
Trailing Matches
20
13.3%
Non-loss rate
15.0%
3.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
1.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.83
Rest days
74.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
49
Normal Rest History Matches
57
0.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
27
Matches
26
0.74
PPG
2.00
14.8%
Win rate
61.5%
29.6%
Draw rate
15.4%
55.6%
Loss rate
23.1%
96.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
74.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
27
Current Competition Matches
26
0.74
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.52
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.65
6
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.33
Portability PPG Range
1.25
76.87
Portability Score
49.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-195.5
PPG-0.76
GF-0.13
GA0.72
PPG-1.26
PPG-0.27
PPG-1.40
PPG-2.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.72
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate14.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score3.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.71
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.36
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.17
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.92
Portability Score26.97
Rest days4.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO-195.5
Current Opponent ELO195.5
Current ELO Difference-391.1
Expected score-0.51
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-10.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.51

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tukums

L
BFC Daugavpils2–0Tukums1 Nov · away
Pick: BFC Daugavpils 60% · hit
D
FK Liepaja0–0Tukums24 Oct · away
Pick: FK Liepaja 58% · missed
L
Rīgas FS2–0Tukums19 Oct · away
Pick: Rīgas FS 81% · hit
L
Tukums1–4FS Jelgava29 Aug · home
Pick: Tukums 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Auda

W
Auda4–3FS Jelgava1 Nov · home
Pick: Auda 67% · hit
W
Ogre United1–4Auda25 Oct · away
Pick: Auda 58% · hit
L
BFC Daugavpils2–1Auda19 Oct · away
Pick: Auda 41% · missed
W
FK Liepaja2–3Auda12 Oct · away
Pick: Auda 40% · hit
D
Auda1–1Super Nova29 Aug · home
Pick: Auda 60% · missed

About this match

Tukums and Auda meet in Virsliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tukums win 26.2%, draw 21.5%, Auda win 52.3%. The pick is Auda win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.9%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.