ScoreProb
U19 league Türkiye Round 11 2026

Rizespor U19 vs Erzurumspor U19

Rizespor U19 Home · Elo 1,498
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Erzurumspor U19 Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rizespor U19 win
Rizespor U19 winPick
50.6%
Draw
27.3%
Erzurumspor U19 win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.0%
No54.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

Rizespor U19 history1 match
Erzurumspor U19 history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rizespor U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,498 against 1,490. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Erzurumspor U19 score far more

    0.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Rizespor U19, against 1.50 over 2 for Erzurumspor U19.

  • Rizespor U19 concede fewer

    Rizespor U19 concede 0.00 a game, Erzurumspor U19 2.00.

  • Erzurumspor U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    0% of Rizespor U19 matches, against 50% for Erzurumspor U19. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rizespor U19
Erzurumspor U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.4
ELO
1489.6
1
ELO · Matches
2
1498.4
Current Team ELO
1489.6
1489.6
Current Opponent ELO
1498.4
8.73
Current ELO Difference
-8.73
0.51
Expected score
0.49
1
History Matches
2
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.26
50.06
Overperformance
47.64
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
1
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
1
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
2
0.00
Goals Mean
1.50
—
Goals Std
0.50
0.0%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
2
0.00
Conceded Mean
2.00
—
Conceded Std
1.00
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
1
History Matches
2
0.00
Result entropy
0.63
—
Goal Difference Std
0.50
100.0
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Lead Win RateLead Points Retention
1
Eligible Matches
1
0
Lead Matches
0
0
Trailing Matches
1
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.00
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
77.88
Rest days
78.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
1
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
0
Long Rest History Matches
0
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
1
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
1
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
1
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
1
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO8.73
PPG0.50
GF-1.50
GA-2.00
PPG0.50
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate100.0%
Failed-to-score rate100.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate100.0%
Failed-to-score rate100.0%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-1.50
Scored 1+ rate-1.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.50
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-2.00
Clean-sheet rate100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.50
Conceded 3+ rate-0.50
Venue Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.00
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.63
Stability score63.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.63
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Trailing Matches-1
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-2.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.00
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest History Matches0
Current Team ELO8.73
Current Opponent ELO-8.73
Current ELO Difference17.46
Expected score0.03
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.27
Overperformance2.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rizespor U19

No earlier results with our pick yet

Erzurumspor U19

L
Gaziantep U191–0Erzurumspor U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Erzurumspor U19 51% · missed
L
Genclerbirligi U193–2Erzurumspor U1930 Aug · away
Pick: Genclerbirligi U19 67% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rizespor U19 and Erzurumspor U19 meet in U19 league on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Rizespor U19 win 50.6%, draw 27.3%, Erzurumspor U19 win 22.1%. The pick is Rizespor U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 46.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.