RM Hamm Benfica vs Jeunesse Canach
Match result probability Model pick: Jeunesse Canach win
RM Hamm Benfica win
31.4%
Draw
28.2%
Jeunesse Canach winPick
40.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.1%
No53.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%
How much we know
RM Hamm Benfica history1 match
Jeunesse Canach history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Jeunesse Canach
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Jeunesse Canach are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
RM Hamm Benfica are rated 48 Elo points higher
Elo 1,487 against 1,440. On rating alone RM Hamm Benfica would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Jeunesse Canach score far more
0.00 goals a game over 1 matches for RM Hamm Benfica, against 1.03 over 37 for Jeunesse Canach.
-
Jeunesse Canach concede fewer
RM Hamm Benfica concede 2.00 a game, Jeunesse Canach 1.62.
-
Jeunesse Canach games more often go over 2.5 goals
0% of RM Hamm Benfica matches, against 51% for Jeunesse Canach. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jeunesse Canach@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1487.3
ELO
1439.6
1
ELO · Matches
37
1487.3
Current Team ELO
1439.6
1439.6
Current Opponent ELO
1487.3
47.69
Current ELO Difference
-47.69
0.57
Expected score
0.43
1
History Matches
37
-0.54
Residual Mean
-0.08
47.41
Overperformance
44.60
-0.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals 160
1
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.40
0.00
Goals for per game
0.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.00
Goals for per game
0.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
0.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals 90
1
Matches
37
0.00
PPG
1.03
0.0%
Win rate
27.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.6%
100.0%
Loss rate
51.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals 100
1
Matches
19
0.00
PPG
1.11
0.0%
Win rate
31.6%
0.0%
Draw rate
15.8%
100.0%
Loss rate
52.6%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
1
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.00
Goals for per game
1.03
0.0%
Scoring rate
67.6%
0.0%
BTTS rate
54.1%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.16
0.0%
Scoring rate
68.4%
0.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
1
History Matches
37
0.00
Goals Mean
1.03
—
Goals Std
1.00
0.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
21.6%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.8%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
1.62
100.0%
Conceding rate
78.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.63
100.0%
Conceding rate
84.2%
1
History Matches
37
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.62
—
Conceded Std
1.38
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.9%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.3%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
1
History Matches
37
0.00
Result entropy
0.93
—
Goal Difference Std
1.70
100.0
Stability score
6.52
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
1
Eligible Matches
35
0
Lead Matches
7
—
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.90
1
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
248.8
Rest days
105.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
22
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
0
Long Rest History Matches
14
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.79
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
5
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
1
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO47.69
PPG-1.03
GF-1.03
GA0.38
PPG-1.11
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-36
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate67.6%
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate68.4%
History Matches-36
Goals Mean-1.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.68
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-1.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
History Matches-36
Conceded Mean0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate54.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Conceded Mean0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
History Matches-36
Result entropy-0.93
Stability score93.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.73
Eligible Matches-34
Lead Matches-7
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days143.7
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Long Rest History Matches-14
Current Team ELO47.69
Current Opponent ELO-47.69
Current ELO Difference95.37
Expected score0.14
History Matches-36
Residual Mean-0.46
Overperformance2.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
RM Hamm Benfica
No earlier results with our pick yet
Jeunesse Canach
No earlier results with our pick yet
About this match
RM Hamm Benfica and Jeunesse Canach meet in Cup on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: RM Hamm Benfica win 31.4%, draw 28.2%, Jeunesse Canach win 40.3%. The pick is Jeunesse Canach win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 46.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.