ScoreProb
2. Division Denmark Round 15 2026

Roskilde vs HIK

Roskilde Home · Elo 1,573
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
HIK Away · Elo 1,458
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Roskilde win
Roskilde winPick
53.9%
Draw
20.1%
HIK win
26.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.8%
Under 2.534.2%

How much we know

Roskilde history64 matches
HIK history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Roskilde are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Roskilde are rated 115 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,573 against 1,458. On rating alone Roskilde would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Roskilde score more

    1.86 goals a game over 64 matches for Roskilde, against 1.31 over 71 for HIK.

  • Roskilde concede fewer

    Roskilde concede 1.23 a game, HIK 1.86.

  • HIK games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Roskilde matches, against 66% for HIK. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Roskilde
HIK@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1572.5
ELO
1457.8
64
ELO · Matches
71
1572.5
Current Team ELO
1457.8
1457.8
Current Opponent ELO
1572.5
114.7
Current ELO Difference
-114.7
0.66
Expected score
0.34
64
History Matches
71
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
53.50
Overperformance
47.90
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
2.80
Goals for per game
2.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
71
1.66
PPG
1.18
45.3%
Win rate
33.8%
29.7%
Draw rate
16.9%
25.0%
Loss rate
49.3%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.5%
57.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.2%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
38.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
35
1.66
PPG
1.09
44.8%
Win rate
28.6%
31.0%
Draw rate
22.9%
24.1%
Loss rate
48.6%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
29
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.31
84.4%
Scoring rate
69.0%
67.2%
BTTS rate
57.7%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.29
89.7%
Scoring rate
68.6%
75.9%
BTTS rate
62.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
71
1.86
Goals Mean
1.31
1.40
Goals Std
1.28
84.4%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
56.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.8%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.86
78.1%
Conceding rate
87.3%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.94
86.2%
Conceding rate
91.4%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
71
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.03
Conceded Std
1.36
29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.1%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.8%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.6%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.6%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
71
0.97
Result entropy
0.92
1.77
Goal Difference Std
2.17
2.99
Stability score
7.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
70
27
Lead Matches
15
70.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.84
16
Trailing Matches
29
50.0%
Non-loss rate
27.6%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
13.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.10
Rest days
73.16
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
42
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
20
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
75.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.87
Portability PPG Range
1.20
60.14
Portability Score
55.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO114.7
PPG0.47
GF0.55
GA-0.62
PPG0.50
PPG0.57
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate15.4%
Scored 2+ rate22.4%
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.62
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score-4.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate22.4%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score4.38
Rest days-0.05
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.81
Current Team ELO114.7
Current Opponent ELO-114.7
Current ELO Difference229.4
Expected score0.32
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Roskilde

D
Naestved0–0Roskilde31 Oct · away
Pick: Roskilde 37% · missed
L
Roskilde1–2Aarhus28 Oct · home
Pick: Aarhus 48% · hit
W
Roskilde4–0Fremad Amager23 Oct · home
Pick: Roskilde 46% · hit
D
Middelfart3–3Roskilde17 Oct · away
Pick: Middelfart 48% · missed
W
Thisted FC0–2Roskilde4 Oct · away
Pick: Roskilde 45% · hit

HIK

L
HIK1–4Nykobing FC30 Oct · home
Pick: Nykobing FC 65% · hit
W
FA 20000–2HIK23 Oct · away
Pick: FA 2000 46% · missed
W
Brabrand0–1HIK17 Oct · away
Pick: Brabrand 39% · missed
L
HIK1–2Middelfart29 Aug · home
Pick: Middelfart 38% · hit
W
NB Bornholm1–4HIK25 Aug · away
Pick: HIK 44% · hit

About this match

Roskilde and HIK meet in 2. Division on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Roskilde win 53.9%, draw 20.1%, HIK win 26.0%. The pick is Roskilde win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.8%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.