ScoreProb
2. Division Denmark Round 15 2026

Thisted FC vs Fremad Amager

Thisted FC Home · Elo 1,499
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fremad Amager Away · Elo 1,526
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fremad Amager win
Thisted FC win
31.5%
Draw
23.9%
Fremad Amager winPick
44.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

How much we know

Thisted FC history70 matches
Fremad Amager history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Fremad Amager are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fremad Amager are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,526 against 1,499. On rating alone Fremad Amager would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Thisted FC score more

    1.36 goals a game over 70 matches for Thisted FC, against 1.18 over 71 for Fremad Amager.

  • Defences are close

    Thisted FC concede 1.27 a game, Fremad Amager 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Thisted FC matches, against 41% for Fremad Amager. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Thisted FC
Fremad Amager@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.7
ELO
1526.4
70
ELO · Matches
71
1498.7
Current Team ELO
1526.4
1526.4
Current Opponent ELO
1498.7
-27.67
Current ELO Difference
27.67
0.46
Expected score
0.54
70
History Matches
71
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.64
Overperformance
51.33
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
2.61
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
3.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
71
1.43
PPG
1.41
40.0%
Win rate
36.6%
22.9%
Draw rate
31.0%
37.1%
Loss rate
32.4%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
40.8%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
19.7%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
36
1.28
PPG
1.14
31.0%
Win rate
27.8%
34.5%
Draw rate
30.6%
34.5%
Loss rate
41.7%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
29
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.18
65.7%
Scoring rate
71.8%
42.9%
BTTS rate
49.3%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.03
72.4%
Scoring rate
61.1%
51.7%
BTTS rate
47.2%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
70
History Matches
71
1.36
Goals Mean
1.18
1.52
Goals Std
0.95
65.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.8%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
38.0%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
7.0%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.20
65.7%
Conceding rate
71.8%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.47
69.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
70
History Matches
71
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.31
Conceded Std
1.12
38.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.6%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.2%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
71
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
2.09
Goal Difference Std
1.52
2.45
Stability score
0.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
70
22
Lead Matches
19
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.82
21
Trailing Matches
22
19.0%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.25
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.13
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.34
44.75
Portability Score
79.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-27.67
PPG0.02
GF0.17
GA0.07
PPG-1.25
PPG0.14
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate0.5%
Scored 3+ rate8.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.59
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Conceded 2+ rate9.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.65
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.56
Stability score2.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.09
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate12.7%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.49
Portability PPG Range1.66
Portability Score-34.48
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO-27.67
Current Opponent ELO27.67
Current ELO Difference-55.33
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Thisted FC

L
Thisted FC1–3B 931 Nov · home
Pick: Thisted FC 39% · missed
L
Nykobing FC3–0Thisted FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Nykobing FC 68% · hit
D
Thisted FC2–2VSK Århus18 Oct · home
Pick: VSK Århus 44% · missed
L
Thisted FC0–2Roskilde4 Oct · home
Pick: Roskilde 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fremad Amager

W
Fremad Amager2–1Middelfart31 Oct · home
Pick: Middelfart 40% · missed
L
Roskilde4–0Fremad Amager23 Oct · away
Pick: Roskilde 46% · hit
W
Fremad Amager3–2Nykobing FC16 Oct · home
Pick: Nykobing FC 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Thisted FC and Fremad Amager meet in 2. Division on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Thisted FC win 31.5%, draw 23.9%, Fremad Amager win 44.6%. The pick is Fremad Amager win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.9%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.