ScoreProb
Girabola Angola Round 10 2026

Sagrada Esperança vs Sporting de Cabinda

Sagrada Esperança Home · Elo 1,489
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sporting de Cabinda Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sagrada Esperança win
Sagrada Esperança winPick
65.8%
Draw
21.4%
Sporting de Cabinda win
12.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.8%
No59.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%

How much we know

Sagrada Esperança history49 matches
Sporting de Cabinda history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Sagrada Esperança are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,489 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sagrada Esperança score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 49 matches for Sagrada Esperança, against 0.00 over 1 for Sporting de Cabinda.

  • Sagrada Esperança concede fewer

    Sagrada Esperança concede 1.08 a game, Sporting de Cabinda 3.00.

  • Sporting de Cabinda games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Sagrada Esperança matches, against 100% for Sporting de Cabinda. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sagrada Esperança
Sporting de Cabinda
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.5
ELO
1486.9
49
ELO · Matches
1
1488.5
Current Team ELO
1486.9
1486.9
Current Opponent ELO
1488.5
1.61
Current ELO Difference
-1.61
0.50
Expected score
0.50
49
History Matches
1
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.57
48.99
Overperformance
47.31
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.57
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.00
1.20
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
1
0.90
PPG
0.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.00
1.40
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
1
1.41
PPG
0.00
36.7%
Win rate
0.0%
30.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
32.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
59.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
0
1.79
PPG
—
45.8%
Win rate
—
41.7%
Draw rate
—
12.5%
Loss rate
—
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
29.2%
Over 2.5 rate
—
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
24
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
65.3%
Scoring rate
0.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.13
Goals for per game
—
66.7%
Scoring rate
—
41.7%
BTTS rate
—
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
49
History Matches
1
1.00
Goals Mean
0.00
1.03
Goals Std
—
65.3%
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
22.4%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
3.00
63.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
—
54.2%
Conceding rate
—
3.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
1
1.08
Conceded Mean
3.00
1.16
Conceded Std
—
24.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
100.0%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
—
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
—
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
1
1.00
Result entropy
0.00
1.61
Goal Difference Std
—
0.26
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
0
13
Lead Matches
0
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
1.00
Lead Points Retention
—
11
Trailing Matches
0
36.4%
Non-loss rate
—
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.30
Portability PPG Std
—
0.60
Portability PPG Range
—
62.59
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO1.61
PPG1.41
GF1.00
GA-1.92
PPG0.00
PPG1.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches48
Clean-sheet rate36.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.65
History Matches24
History Matches48
Goals Mean1.00
Scored 1+ rate65.3%
Scored 2+ rate22.4%
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
History Matches48
Conceded Mean-1.92
Clean-sheet rate36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.76
Conceded 3+ rate-0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
History Matches48
Result entropy1.00
Stability score-99.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.94
Eligible Matches44
Lead Matches13
Trailing Matches11
Halftime Coverage Matches44
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches22
Long Rest History Matches20
Current Team ELO1.61
Current Opponent ELO-1.61
Current ELO Difference3.22
Expected score0.00
History Matches48
Residual Mean0.55
Overperformance1.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sagrada Esperança

L
Recreativo do Libolo3–1Sagrada Esperança31 Oct · away
Pick: Recreativo do Libolo 51% · hit
W
Sagrada Esperança3–01º de Maio24 Oct · home
Pick: Sagrada Esperança 39% · hit
D
Sagrada Esperança1–1Recreativo da Caála17 Oct · home
Pick: Sagrada Esperança 37% · missed
W
Sagrada Esperança1–0Kabuscorp7 Oct · home
Pick: Kabuscorp 38% · missed
W
Sagrada Esperança3–1São Salvador29 Aug · home
Pick: Sagrada Esperança 44% · hit

Sporting de Cabinda

L
Wiliete3–0Sporting de Cabinda1 Nov · away
Pick: Wiliete 90% · hit
D
Sporting de Cabinda0–0Académica do Lobito17 Oct · home
Pick: Académica do Lobito 52% · missed
L
Sporting de Cabinda1–2Desportivo Huíla26 Aug · home
Pick: Desportivo Huíla 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sagrada Esperança and Sporting de Cabinda meet in Girabola on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sagrada Esperança win 65.8%, draw 21.4%, Sporting de Cabinda win 12.8%. The pick is Sagrada Esperança win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.7%. Both teams to score: 40.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.