ScoreProb
Ligue 2 France Round 12 2026

Saint Etienne vs Laval

Saint Etienne Home · Elo 1,544
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Laval Away · Elo 1,503
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Saint Etienne win
Saint Etienne winPick
58.0%
Draw
19.9%
Laval win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.7%
Under 2.537.3%

How much we know

Saint Etienne history65 matches
Laval history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Saint Etienne are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Saint Etienne are rated 41 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,544 against 1,503. On rating alone Saint Etienne would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Saint Etienne score more

    1.80 goals a game over 65 matches for Saint Etienne, against 1.24 over 66 for Laval.

  • Laval concede fewer

    Saint Etienne concede 1.54 a game, Laval 1.32.

  • Saint Etienne games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Saint Etienne matches, against 42% for Laval. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Saint Etienne
Laval
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.0
ELO
1502.7
65
ELO · Matches
66
1544.0
Current Team ELO
1502.7
1502.7
Current Opponent ELO
1544.0
41.35
Current ELO Difference
-41.35
0.56
Expected score
0.44
65
History Matches
66
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
53.17
Overperformance
49.83
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.60
3.60
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
2.20
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
66
1.43
PPG
1.26
41.5%
Win rate
31.8%
18.5%
Draw rate
30.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
37.9%
78.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
66.2%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
44.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
35
1.66
PPG
1.17
48.6%
Win rate
28.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
31.4%
31.4%
Loss rate
40.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
77.1%
Over 2.5 rate
31.4%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
2.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
35
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.24
76.9%
Scoring rate
65.2%
53.8%
BTTS rate
45.5%
2.34
Goals for per game
1.03
82.9%
Scoring rate
62.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
40.0%
3.33
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
66
1.80
Goals Mean
1.24
1.80
Goals Std
1.35
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
65.2%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
34.8%
26.2%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
2.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.32
70.8%
Conceding rate
71.2%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.43
68.6%
Conceding rate
65.7%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
66
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.42
Conceded Std
1.22
43.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
27.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
66
0.95
Result entropy
1.00
2.48
Goal Difference Std
1.94
5.03
Stability score
0.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
66
22
Lead Matches
21
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
16
29.4%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.40
42
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
20
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
1.33
100.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
7
Competition Season Count
6
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.93
Portability PPG Std
0.44
3.00
Portability PPG Range
1.40
34.86
Portability Score
53.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO41.35
PPG0.17
GF0.56
GA0.22
PPG1.67
PPG0.49
PPG1.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate11.8%
Scored 2+ rate14.4%
Scored 3+ rate14.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.54
Stability score4.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.25
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate14.9%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate4.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.49
Portability PPG Range1.60
Portability Score-18.13
Rest days-0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.10
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO41.35
Current Opponent ELO-41.35
Current ELO Difference82.70
Expected score0.12
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Saint Etienne

L
Guingamp3–0Saint Etienne31 Oct · away
Pick: Saint Etienne 47% · missed
W
RED Star FC 930–1Saint Etienne17 Oct · away
Pick: Saint Etienne 41% · hit
W
Dijon2–3Saint Etienne31 Aug · away
Pick: Dijon 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Laval

W
Laval1–0Boulogne30 Oct · home
Pick: Laval 44% · hit
L
Nancy1–0Laval23 Oct · away
Pick: Nancy 46% · hit
D
Laval3–3Clermont Foot16 Oct · home
Pick: Laval 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Saint Etienne and Laval meet in Ligue 2 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Saint Etienne win 58.0%, draw 19.9%, Laval win 22.1%. The pick is Saint Etienne win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.7%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.