ScoreProb
Primera División Costa Rica Round 16 2026

San Carlos vs Perez Zeledon

San Carlos Home · Elo 1,438
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Perez Zeledon Away · Elo 1,432
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: San Carlos win
San Carlos winPick
48.7%
Draw
26.8%
Perez Zeledon win
24.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.3%
Under 2.553.7%

How much we know

San Carlos history54 matches
Perez Zeledon history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why San Carlos are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,438 against 1,432. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Perez Zeledon score more

    0.80 goals a game over 54 matches for San Carlos, against 0.95 over 57 for Perez Zeledon.

  • Defences are close

    San Carlos concede 1.37 a game, Perez Zeledon 1.47.

  • Perez Zeledon games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of San Carlos matches, against 47% for Perez Zeledon. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
San Carlos
Perez Zeledon
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1438.1
ELO
1431.8
54
ELO · Matches
57
1438.1
Current Team ELO
1431.8
1431.8
Current Opponent ELO
1438.1
6.28
Current ELO Difference
-6.28
0.51
Expected score
0.49
54
History Matches
57
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.06
45.63
Overperformance
45.86
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.10
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
57
0.89
PPG
0.91
22.2%
Win rate
19.3%
22.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
55.6%
Loss rate
47.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
28
1.16
PPG
0.64
28.0%
Win rate
10.7%
32.0%
Draw rate
32.1%
40.0%
Loss rate
57.1%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.7%
24.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
25
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.80
Goals for per game
0.95
57.4%
Scoring rate
59.6%
38.9%
BTTS rate
49.1%
0.88
Goals for per game
0.61
64.0%
Scoring rate
46.4%
36.0%
BTTS rate
39.3%
0.75
Goals for per game
0.40
75.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
54
History Matches
57
0.80
Goals Mean
0.95
0.91
Goals Std
1.02
57.4%
Scored 1+ rate
59.6%
13.0%
Scored 2+ rate
22.8%
7.4%
Scored 3+ rate
10.5%
0.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.47
75.9%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.57
68.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
54
History Matches
57
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.06
Conceded Std
1.26
46.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.1%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.6%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
42.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
42.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.6%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
57
0.91
Result entropy
0.94
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.61
9.43
Stability score
5.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
57
11
Lead Matches
9
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.85
19
Trailing Matches
21
5.3%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
30
0.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.70
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
20.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
4
Current Competition Matches
5
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.80
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.68
Portability PPG Range
0.36
62.78
Portability Score
78.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO6.28
PPG-0.02
GF-0.15
GA-0.10
PPG0.70
PPG0.52
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Conceded 2+ rate11.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score3.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.70
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.31
Portability Score-15.97
Rest days-1.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Current Team ELO6.28
Current Opponent ELO-6.28
Current ELO Difference12.56
Expected score0.02
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

San Carlos

L
CS Cartagines3–0San Carlos1 Nov · away
Pick: CS Cartagines 59% · hit
W
San Carlos2–1Deportivo Saprissa25 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 57% · missed
D
Sporting San Jose3–3San Carlos20 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting San Jose 55% · missed
L
San Carlos1–2Inter San Carlos14 Oct · home
Pick: Inter San Carlos 48% · hit
L
San Carlos1–2Puntarenas FC30 Aug · home
Pick: San Carlos 37% · missed

Perez Zeledon

D
Perez Zeledon1–1Puntarenas FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Puntarenas FC 39% · missed
L
LD Alajuelense1–0Perez Zeledon26 Oct · away
Pick: LD Alajuelense 68% · hit
L
Perez Zeledon0–3CS Herediano18 Oct · home
Pick: Perez Zeledon 41% · missed
L
Perez Zeledon1–4Escorpiones Belén14 Oct · home
Pick: Perez Zeledon 45% · missed
D
Perez Zeledon1–1LD Alajuelense30 Aug · home
Pick: LD Alajuelense 58% · missed

About this match

San Carlos and Perez Zeledon meet in Primera División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: San Carlos win 48.7%, draw 26.8%, Perez Zeledon win 24.5%. The pick is San Carlos win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.3%. Both teams to score: 44.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.