ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain Group 16 - 10 2026

San Marcial vs Oyonesa

San Marcial Home · Elo 1,478
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oyonesa Away · Elo 1,581
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oyonesa win
San Marcial win
21.7%
Draw
24.5%
Oyonesa winPick
53.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%

How much we know

San Marcial history33 matches
Oyonesa history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Oyonesa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oyonesa are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,478. On rating alone Oyonesa would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Oyonesa score more

    1.18 goals a game over 33 matches for San Marcial, against 1.42 over 57 for Oyonesa.

  • Oyonesa concede fewer

    San Marcial concede 1.73 a game, Oyonesa 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of San Marcial matches, against 49% for Oyonesa. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
San Marcial
Oyonesa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.9
ELO
1581.4
33
ELO · Matches
57
1477.9
Current Team ELO
1581.4
1581.4
Current Opponent ELO
1477.9
-103.4
Current ELO Difference
103.4
0.36
Expected score
0.64
33
History Matches
57
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
47.84
Overperformance
55.30
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
2.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
57
1.18
PPG
1.72
30.3%
Win rate
49.1%
27.3%
Draw rate
24.6%
42.4%
Loss rate
26.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.2%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.8%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
28
1.19
PPG
1.75
31.3%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
43.8%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
16
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.42
66.7%
Scoring rate
70.2%
48.5%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.39
68.8%
Scoring rate
67.9%
56.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
33
History Matches
57
1.18
Goals Mean
1.42
1.14
Goals Std
1.11
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.2%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
54.4%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
15.8%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.73
Goals against per game
1.05
69.7%
Conceding rate
64.9%
1.69
Goals against per game
1.07
81.3%
Conceding rate
64.3%
33
History Matches
57
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.75
Conceded Std
0.96
51.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.6%
21.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
57
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.28
1.70
Stability score
4.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
57
8
Lead Matches
22
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.79
12
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.1
Rest days
154.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
17
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.10
—
Portability PPG Range
0.22
—
Portability Score
83.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-103.4
PPG-0.54
GF-0.24
GA0.67
PPG-0.56
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate3.5%
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-24
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches-24
Conceded Mean0.67
Conceded Std0.78
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate19.9%
Conceded 3+ rate12.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.77
History Matches-24
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.75
Stability score-3.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.00
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate14.8%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days28.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Current Team ELO-103.4
Current Opponent ELO103.4
Current ELO Difference-206.9
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-24
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

San Marcial

L
La Calzada2–1San Marcial1 Nov · away
Pick: La Calzada 59% · hit
W
San Marcial1–0Pradejón25 Oct · home
Pick: San Marcial 38% · hit
W
Yagüe0–3San Marcial17 Oct · away
Pick: Yagüe 57% · missed
D
San Marcial1–1River Ebro4 Oct · home
Pick: San Marcial 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Oyonesa

W
Oyonesa4–1Cenicero1 Nov · home
Pick: Oyonesa 71% · hit
L
River Ebro2–1Oyonesa25 Oct · away
Pick: Oyonesa 51% · missed
W
Oyonesa2–0Berceo18 Oct · home
Pick: Oyonesa 58% · hit
D
Oyonesa1–1Varea4 Oct · home
Pick: Varea 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

San Marcial and Oyonesa meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: San Marcial win 21.7%, draw 24.5%, Oyonesa win 53.8%. The pick is Oyonesa win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.