ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain Group 11 - 10 2026

Santanyí vs Binissalem

Santanyí Home · Elo 1,450
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Binissalem Away · Elo 1,484
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Binissalem win
Santanyí win
31.0%
Draw
31.6%
Binissalem winPick
37.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%
No51.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Santanyí history46 matches
Binissalem history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Binissalem are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Binissalem are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,484 against 1,450. On rating alone Binissalem would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Santanyí score more

    1.15 goals a game over 46 matches for Santanyí, against 0.82 over 49 for Binissalem.

  • Binissalem concede fewer

    Santanyí concede 1.65 a game, Binissalem 1.02.

  • Santanyí games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Santanyí matches, against 22% for Binissalem. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Santanyí
Binissalem
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1450.1
ELO
1483.6
46
ELO · Matches
49
1450.1
Current Team ELO
1483.6
1483.6
Current Opponent ELO
1450.1
-33.46
Current ELO Difference
33.46
0.45
Expected score
0.55
46
History Matches
49
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.02
46.55
Overperformance
48.45
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
49
1.11
PPG
1.20
28.3%
Win rate
30.6%
26.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
45.7%
Loss rate
40.8%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
55.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
22.4%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
8.2%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.58
PPG
1.08
45.8%
Win rate
26.9%
20.8%
Draw rate
26.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
46.2%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
0.82
71.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
54.3%
BTTS rate
30.6%
1.54
Goals for per game
0.92
79.2%
Scoring rate
57.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
38.5%
46
History Matches
49
1.15
Goals Mean
0.82
1.02
Goals Std
0.92
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
30.4%
Scored 2+ rate
16.3%
8.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.65
Goals against per game
1.02
73.9%
Conceding rate
63.3%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.35
66.7%
Conceding rate
73.1%
46
History Matches
49
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.73
Conceded Std
1.00
41.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
23.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
2.18
Goal Difference Std
1.43
3.00
Stability score
1.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
49
7
Lead Matches
10
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.73
19
Trailing Matches
10
31.6%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
180.4
Rest days
180.4
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.06
Portability PPG Range
0.16
94.13
Portability Score
86.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-33.46
PPG-0.10
GF0.34
GA0.63
PPG0.51
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate14.6%
Scored 2+ rate14.1%
Scored 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.63
Conceded Std0.73
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate15.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.76
Stability score1.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate31.6%
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score8.00
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-33.46
Current Opponent ELO33.46
Current ELO Difference-66.92
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Santanyí

D
Manacor1–1Santanyí31 Oct · away
Pick: Manacor 63% · missed
D
Santanyí0–0Ibiza Islas Pitiusas24 Oct · home
Pick: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 40% · missed
W
Porreres0–1Santanyí4 Oct · away
Pick: Porreres 55% · missed
L
Andratx2–1Santanyí30 Aug · away
Pick: Andratx 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Binissalem

W
Binissalem3–0Arenal31 Oct · home
Pick: Binissalem 61% · hit
D
Inter Ibiza1–1Binissalem24 Oct · away
Pick: Binissalem 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Santanyí and Binissalem meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Santanyí win 31.0%, draw 31.6%, Binissalem win 37.4%. The pick is Binissalem win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.