ScoreProb
First League Armenia Round 13 2026

Sardarapat 2 vs Andranik

Sardarapat 2 Home · Elo 1,487
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Andranik Away · Elo 1,597
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Andranik win
Sardarapat 2 win
16.0%
Draw
21.6%
Andranik winPick
62.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%
No51.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%

How much we know

Sardarapat 2 history3 matches
Andranik history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Andranik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Andranik are rated 110 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,597 against 1,487. On rating alone Andranik would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Andranik score far more

    0.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Sardarapat 2, against 2.38 over 53 for Andranik.

  • Andranik concede fewer

    Sardarapat 2 concede 1.67 a game, Andranik 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Sardarapat 2 matches, against 64% for Andranik. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sardarapat 2
Andranik
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.1
ELO
1597.4
3
ELO · Matches
53
1487.1
Current Team ELO
1597.4
1597.4
Current Opponent ELO
1487.1
-110.3
Current ELO Difference
110.3
0.35
Expected score
0.65
3
History Matches
53
-0.25
Residual Mean
0.09
46.79
Overperformance
56.87
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.67
Goals for per game
3.00
1.67
Goals against per game
1.20
33.3%
Win rate
60.0%
3
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
0.67
Goals for per game
3.20
1.67
Goals against per game
1.50
33.3%
Win rate
60.0%
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
0.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.27
1.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.63
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
53
1.00
PPG
1.96
33.3%
Win rate
58.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.8%
66.7%
Loss rate
20.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.2%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
49.1%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
25
0.00
PPG
1.84
0.0%
Win rate
56.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
16.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
28.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
56.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
1
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.67
Goals for per game
2.38
66.7%
Scoring rate
83.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
52.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
76.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
44.0%
0.67
Goals for per game
3.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
3
History Matches
53
0.67
Goals Mean
2.38
0.47
Goals Std
1.97
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
83.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
60.4%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
37.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
1.15
66.7%
Conceding rate
64.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.24
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
3
History Matches
53
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.25
Conceded Std
1.16
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.8%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.5%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
53
0.58
Result entropy
0.88
1.63
Goal Difference Std
2.35
42.06
Stability score
12.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
47
0
Lead Matches
28
—
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.89
1
Trailing Matches
7
0.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.26
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.90
Rest days
74.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
1
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.30
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
1
Competition Season Count
7
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.14
—
Portability PPG Range
0.37
—
Portability Score
78.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-110.3
PPG-0.96
GF-1.71
GA0.52
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.84
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-50
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate16.4%
History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.40
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-50
Goals Mean-1.71
Goals Std-1.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.60
Scored 3+ rate-0.38
Venue Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.53
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.80
History Matches-50
Conceded Mean0.52
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate30.8%
Conceded 3+ rate25.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches-50
Result entropy-0.30
Goal Difference Std-0.72
Stability score30.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.95
Eligible Matches-44
Lead Matches-28
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-44
First Half Goals For Mean-1.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.67
Competition Season Count-6
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days6.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-31
Normal Rest Points Per Match-2.25
Long Rest History Matches-18
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.47
Current Team ELO-110.3
Current Opponent ELO110.3
Current ELO Difference-220.5
Expected score-0.31
History Matches-50
Residual Mean-0.34
Overperformance-10.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sardarapat 2

L
Bentonit Ijevan3–2Sardarapat 221 Oct · away
Pick: Bentonit Ijevan 74% · hit
W
Sardarapat 22–0Banants II14 Oct · home
Pick: Banants II 39% · missed
L
Mika3–2Sardarapat 28 Oct · away
Pick: Mika 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Andranik

L
Andranik0–2Bentonit Ijevan2 Nov · home
Pick: Andranik 56% · missed
L
FC Urartu3–2Andranik27 Oct · away
Pick: FC Urartu 50% · hit
W
Banants II1–2Andranik19 Oct · away
Pick: Andranik 60% · hit
W
Andranik2–1Mika12 Oct · home
Pick: Andranik 79% · hit
W
Ararat-Armenia II1–4Andranik8 Oct · away
Pick: Andranik 75% · hit

About this match

Sardarapat 2 and Andranik meet in First League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sardarapat 2 win 16.0%, draw 21.6%, Andranik win 62.4%. The pick is Andranik win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.