ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Germany West - 16 2026

Schalke 04 II vs Borussia M'gladbach II

Schalke 04 II Home · Elo 1,547
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Borussia M'gladbach II Away · Elo 1,540
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Borussia M'gladbach II win
Schalke 04 II win
35.1%
Draw
24.4%
Borussia M'gladbach II winPick
40.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

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Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.8%
No41.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%

How much we know

Schalke 04 II history59 matches
Borussia M'gladbach II history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Borussia M'gladbach II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,547 against 1,540. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Schalke 04 II score more

    1.85 goals a game over 59 matches for Schalke 04 II, against 1.56 over 59 for Borussia M'gladbach II.

  • Defences are close

    Schalke 04 II concede 1.53 a game, Borussia M'gladbach II 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Schalke 04 II matches, against 58% for Borussia M'gladbach II. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Schalke 04 II
Borussia M'gladbach II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1547.3
ELO
1539.6
59
ELO · Matches
59
1547.3
Current Team ELO
1539.6
1539.6
Current Opponent ELO
1547.3
7.74
Current ELO Difference
-7.74
0.51
Expected score
0.49
59
History Matches
59
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
53.09
Overperformance
51.88
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
3.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.70
2.40
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.95
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
2.29
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
59
1.58
PPG
1.53
45.8%
Win rate
44.1%
20.3%
Draw rate
20.3%
33.9%
Loss rate
35.6%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
64.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
49.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
32
1.73
PPG
1.78
53.3%
Win rate
53.1%
13.3%
Draw rate
18.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
28.1%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
43.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
30
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.56
72.9%
Scoring rate
79.7%
50.8%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.53
76.7%
Scoring rate
84.4%
43.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
59
1.85
Goals Mean
1.56
1.63
Goals Std
1.12
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
79.7%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
49.2%
35.6%
Scored 3+ rate
23.7%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.42
67.8%
Conceding rate
69.5%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.00
56.7%
Conceding rate
59.4%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
59
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.52
Conceded Std
1.39
45.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.0%
23.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
59
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
2.38
Goal Difference Std
1.89
4.57
Stability score
4.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
59
16
Lead Matches
20
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.87
15
Trailing Matches
20
26.7%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
26
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
29
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.66
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.79
Portability PPG Range
1.50
63.64
Portability Score
49.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO7.74
PPG0.05
GF0.29
GA0.10
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.51
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate11.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.76
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Conceded 2+ rate6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.74
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score0.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.80
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.71
Portability Score14.53
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO7.74
Current Opponent ELO-7.74
Current ELO Difference15.48
Expected score0.02
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Schalke 04 II

L
Bonner SC3–1Schalke 04 II31 Oct · away
Pick: Bonner SC 50% · hit
D
Hilden1–1Schalke 04 II24 Oct · away
Pick: Hilden 59% · missed
L
Schalke 04 II1–3Köln II20 Oct · home
Pick: Schalke 04 II 45% · missed
D
Schalke 04 II1–1Westfalia Rhynern16 Oct · home
Pick: Westfalia Rhynern 44% · missed
L
Borussia Dortmund II3–1Schalke 04 II1 Sep · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund II 60% · hit

Borussia M'gladbach II

W
Borussia M'gladbach II3–0Hilden31 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia M'gladbach II 44% · hit
L
Westfalia Rhynern3–2Borussia M'gladbach II24 Oct · away
Pick: Westfalia Rhynern 50% · hit
D
Everton U211–1Borussia M'gladbach II20 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia M'gladbach II 48% · missed
W
Borussia M'gladbach II2–1Bergisch Gladbach17 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia M'gladbach II 52% · hit
W
Borussia M'gladbach II4–1SG Wattenscheid 0929 Aug · home
Pick: Borussia M'gladbach II 47% · hit

About this match

Schalke 04 II and Borussia M'gladbach II meet in Regionalliga - West on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Schalke 04 II win 35.1%, draw 24.4%, Borussia M'gladbach II win 40.6%. The pick is Borussia M'gladbach II win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 58.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.