ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain Group 10 - 10 2026

Sevilla III vs Utrera

Sevilla III Home · Elo 1,456
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Utrera Away · Elo 1,534
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Utrera win
Sevilla III win
28.8%
Draw
27.7%
Utrera winPick
43.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.6%
No50.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

How much we know

Sevilla III history49 matches
Utrera history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Utrera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Utrera are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,534 against 1,456. On rating alone Utrera would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Utrera score more

    0.98 goals a game over 49 matches for Sevilla III, against 1.29 over 51 for Utrera.

  • Utrera concede fewer

    Sevilla III concede 1.31 a game, Utrera 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Sevilla III matches, against 45% for Utrera. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sevilla III
Utrera
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.3
ELO
1534.5
49
ELO · Matches
51
1456.3
Current Team ELO
1534.5
1534.5
Current Opponent ELO
1456.3
-78.15
Current ELO Difference
78.15
0.39
Expected score
0.61
49
History Matches
51
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
46.80
Overperformance
52.25
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
0.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
51
1.06
PPG
1.51
26.5%
Win rate
41.2%
26.5%
Draw rate
27.5%
46.9%
Loss rate
31.4%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.1%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.38
PPG
1.08
37.5%
Win rate
26.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.9%
37.5%
Loss rate
46.2%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.98
Goals for per game
1.29
55.1%
Scoring rate
70.6%
44.9%
BTTS rate
49.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.12
62.5%
Scoring rate
69.2%
54.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
51
0.98
Goals Mean
1.29
1.06
Goals Std
1.18
55.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
30.6%
Scored 2+ rate
37.3%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.31
Goals against per game
1.14
77.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.31
79.2%
Conceding rate
73.1%
49
History Matches
51
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.97
Conceded Std
1.05
38.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
44.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
44.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
51
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.46
3.60
Stability score
1.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
51
9
Lead Matches
13
55.6%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.82
12
Trailing Matches
17
8.3%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.3
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
19
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.00
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.00
Portability PPG Range
0.54
99.81
Portability Score
64.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-78.15
PPG-0.45
GF-0.31
GA0.17
PPG0.30
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate15.5%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate2.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score2.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.89
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.24
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score34.95
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO-78.15
Current Opponent ELO78.15
Current ELO Difference-156.3
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sevilla III

D
Sevilla III0–0Conil25 Oct · home
Pick: Conil 37% · missed
D
Chiclana1–1Sevilla III4 Oct · away
Pick: Sevilla III 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Utrera

L
Ceuta II5–2Utrera24 Oct · away
Pick: Ceuta II 37% · hit
W
Utrera1–0Cádiz II4 Oct · home
Pick: Utrera 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sevilla III and Utrera meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sevilla III win 28.8%, draw 27.7%, Utrera win 43.5%. The pick is Utrera win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 49.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.