ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain Group 13 - 10 2026

SFC Minerva vs Santa Cruz

SFC Minerva Home · Elo 1,487
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Santa Cruz Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SFC Minerva win
SFC Minerva winPick
47.9%
Draw
30.6%
Santa Cruz win
21.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.1%
No53.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%

How much we know

SFC Minerva history49 matches
Santa Cruz history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why SFC Minerva are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,487 against 1,493. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Santa Cruz score more

    0.84 goals a game over 49 matches for SFC Minerva, against 1.03 over 29 for Santa Cruz.

  • Defences are close

    SFC Minerva concede 1.12 a game, Santa Cruz 1.07.

  • Santa Cruz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of SFC Minerva matches, against 41% for Santa Cruz. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SFC Minerva
Santa Cruz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.6
ELO
1492.6
49
ELO · Matches
29
1486.6
Current Team ELO
1492.6
1492.6
Current Opponent ELO
1486.6
-6.01
Current ELO Difference
6.01
0.49
Expected score
0.51
49
History Matches
29
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.68
Overperformance
49.46
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
29
1.22
PPG
1.31
30.6%
Win rate
37.9%
30.6%
Draw rate
17.2%
38.8%
Loss rate
44.8%
46.9%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
32.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
20.4%
Over 3.5 rate
13.8%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
14
1.65
PPG
1.79
43.5%
Win rate
57.1%
34.8%
Draw rate
7.1%
21.7%
Loss rate
35.7%
47.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
30.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
23
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.84
Goals for per game
1.03
46.9%
Scoring rate
58.6%
28.6%
BTTS rate
31.0%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.36
56.5%
Scoring rate
64.3%
30.4%
BTTS rate
21.4%
49
History Matches
29
0.84
Goals Mean
1.03
1.15
Goals Std
1.13
46.9%
Scored 1+ rate
58.6%
20.4%
Scored 2+ rate
27.6%
10.2%
Scored 3+ rate
13.8%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.12
Goals against per game
1.07
61.2%
Conceding rate
62.1%
0.74
Goals against per game
0.93
52.2%
Conceding rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
29
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.21
Conceded Std
1.08
30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.0%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
38.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
53.1%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
38.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
53.1%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
38.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
29
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.85
0.59
Stability score
6.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
29
7
Lead Matches
4
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
1.00
15
Trailing Matches
13
20.0%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.21
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.8
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
25
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.17
Portability PPG Std
—
0.33
Portability PPG Range
—
75.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-6.01
PPG-0.09
GF-0.20
GA0.05
PPG-0.13
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate11.7%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches20
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches20
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches20
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-5.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate5.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-6.01
Current Opponent ELO6.01
Current ELO Difference-12.02
Expected score-0.02
History Matches20
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SFC Minerva

L
Bala Azul2–0SFC Minerva1 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 40% · missed
L
SFC Minerva1–3Cotillas CD25 Oct · home
Pick: SFC Minerva 60% · missed
W
Mazarrón FC0–1SFC Minerva4 Oct · away
Pick: Mazarrón FC 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Santa Cruz

W
Santa Cruz2–0Unión Molinense31 Oct · home
Pick: Unión Molinense 46% · missed
W
Santa Cruz3–2Atlético Pulpileño24 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 39% · missed
D
Alcantarilla1–1Santa Cruz4 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Cruz 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

SFC Minerva and Santa Cruz meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: SFC Minerva win 47.9%, draw 30.6%, Santa Cruz win 21.5%. The pick is SFC Minerva win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.4%. Both teams to score: 46.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.