ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain Group 13 - 10 2026

UCAM Murcia II vs Bala Azul

UCAM Murcia II Home · Elo 1,552
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bala Azul Away · Elo 1,484
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: UCAM Murcia II win
UCAM Murcia II winPick
40.9%
Draw
33.0%
Bala Azul win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

UCAM Murcia II history49 matches
Bala Azul history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why UCAM Murcia II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • UCAM Murcia II are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,552 against 1,484. On rating alone UCAM Murcia II would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • UCAM Murcia II score more

    1.45 goals a game over 49 matches for UCAM Murcia II, against 1.12 over 49 for Bala Azul.

  • Defences are close

    UCAM Murcia II concede 1.10 a game, Bala Azul 1.04.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of UCAM Murcia II matches, against 39% for Bala Azul. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
UCAM Murcia II
Bala Azul
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1552.3
ELO
1483.6
49
ELO · Matches
49
1552.3
Current Team ELO
1483.6
1483.6
Current Opponent ELO
1552.3
68.70
Current ELO Difference
-68.70
0.60
Expected score
0.40
49
History Matches
49
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
54.21
Overperformance
48.66
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
2.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
1.47
PPG
1.22
34.7%
Win rate
26.5%
42.9%
Draw rate
42.9%
22.4%
Loss rate
30.6%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
44.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.8%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
12.2%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.31
PPG
0.96
26.9%
Win rate
16.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
48.0%
23.1%
Loss rate
36.0%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
34.6%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
12.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
1.12
73.5%
Scoring rate
69.4%
51.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.04
69.2%
Scoring rate
72.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
68.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.45
Goals Mean
1.12
1.25
Goals Std
1.06
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
26.5%
18.4%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.10
Goals against per game
1.04
69.4%
Conceding rate
67.3%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.20
69.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.04
0.97
Conceded Std
0.99
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.5%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.1%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.26
2.99
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
16
Lead Matches
9
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.78
11
Trailing Matches
13
36.4%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.8
Rest days
182.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.51
Portability PPG Range
0.32
66.17
Portability Score
75.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO68.70
PPG0.24
GF0.33
GA0.06
PPG0.35
PPG0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.33
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate4.1%
Scored 2+ rate16.3%
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score1.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate21.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-9.81
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO68.70
Current Opponent ELO-68.70
Current ELO Difference137.4
Expected score0.20
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

UCAM Murcia II

W
UCAM Murcia II2–1Alcantarilla24 Oct · home
Pick: UCAM Murcia II 64% · hit
L
Olímpico Totana1–0UCAM Murcia II4 Oct · away
Pick: UCAM Murcia II 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bala Azul

W
Bala Azul2–0SFC Minerva1 Nov · home
Pick: Draw 40% · missed
D
Unión Molinense1–1Bala Azul25 Oct · away
Pick: Unión Molinense 52% · missed
L
Cotillas CD2–1Bala Azul4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

UCAM Murcia II and Bala Azul meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: UCAM Murcia II win 40.9%, draw 33.0%, Bala Azul win 26.1%. The pick is UCAM Murcia II win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.