ScoreProb
Super League China Round 30 2026

Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns

Yunnan Yukun Home · Elo 1,546
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wuhan Three Towns Away · Elo 1,433
Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Yunnan Yukun win
Yunnan Yukun winPick
55.9%
Draw
20.9%
Wuhan Three Towns win
23.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%

How much we know

Yunnan Yukun history62 matches
Wuhan Three Towns history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 07:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Yunnan Yukun are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Yunnan Yukun are rated 114 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,433. On rating alone Yunnan Yukun would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Yunnan Yukun score far more

    1.85 goals a game over 62 matches for Yunnan Yukun, against 1.20 over 55 for Wuhan Three Towns.

  • Defences are close

    Yunnan Yukun concede 1.90 a game, Wuhan Three Towns 1.87.

  • Yunnan Yukun games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Yunnan Yukun matches, against 56% for Wuhan Three Towns. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Yunnan Yukun
Wuhan Three Towns
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.4
ELO
1432.6
62
ELO · Matches
55
1546.4
Current Team ELO
1432.6
1432.6
Current Opponent ELO
1546.4
113.8
Current ELO Difference
-113.8
0.66
Expected score
0.34
62
History Matches
55
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
52.38
Overperformance
45.59
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.10
2.50
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
55
1.47
PPG
0.87
40.3%
Win rate
18.2%
25.8%
Draw rate
32.7%
33.9%
Loss rate
49.1%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
69.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
48.4%
Over 3.5 rate
41.8%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
28
1.90
PPG
0.54
55.2%
Win rate
7.1%
24.1%
Draw rate
32.1%
20.7%
Loss rate
60.7%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
29
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.20
88.7%
Scoring rate
70.9%
74.2%
BTTS rate
61.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
93.1%
Scoring rate
64.3%
65.5%
BTTS rate
64.3%
2.04
Goals for per game
1.36
91.7%
Scoring rate
77.3%
79.2%
BTTS rate
63.6%
62
History Matches
55
1.85
Goals Mean
1.20
1.24
Goals Std
1.02
88.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.9%
53.2%
Scored 2+ rate
38.2%
29.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.90
Goals against per game
1.87
80.6%
Conceding rate
83.6%
1.52
Goals against per game
2.07
72.4%
Conceding rate
92.9%
1.88
Goals against per game
1.73
83.3%
Conceding rate
81.8%
62
History Matches
55
1.90
Conceded Mean
1.87
1.54
Conceded Std
1.39
51.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
35.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.1%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
11.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
11.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
6.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.93
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.62
1.47
Stability score
6.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
55
24
Lead Matches
14
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
42.9%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.50
21
Trailing Matches
24
47.6%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
19.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.81
Rest days
77.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
22
1.46
PPG
0.95
41.7%
Win rate
18.2%
20.8%
Draw rate
40.9%
37.5%
Loss rate
40.9%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
24
Current Competition Matches
22
1.46
Current Competition PPG
0.95
0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.36
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.85
Portability PPG Range
0.12
56.33
Portability Score
89.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO113.8
PPG0.60
GF0.65
GA0.03
PPG0.50
PPG1.36
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate20.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.65
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate17.8%
Scored 2+ rate15.0%
Scored 3+ rate21.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches7
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score-5.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate23.8%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate26.8%
Trailing Win Rate14.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.53
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range0.73
Portability Score-32.86
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.49
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.89
Current Team ELO113.8
Current Opponent ELO-113.8
Current ELO Difference227.5
Expected score0.32
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Yunnan Yukun

W
Yunnan Yukun4–3Dalian Zhixing1 Nov · home
Pick: Yunnan Yukun 51% · hit
D
Qingdao Youth Island1–1Yunnan Yukun24 Oct · away
Pick: Qingdao Youth Island 47% · missed
D
Yunnan Yukun1–1Chongqing Tongliang Long17 Oct · home
Pick: Yunnan Yukun 48% · missed
L
Hangzhou Greentown6–0Yunnan Yukun29 Aug · away
Pick: Hangzhou Greentown 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wuhan Three Towns

L
Wuhan Three Towns3–5Shandong Luneng24 Oct · home
Pick: Shandong Luneng 43% · hit
L
Wuhan Three Towns1–3Shanghai Shenhua18 Oct · home
Pick: Shanghai Shenhua 43% · hit
W
Qingdao Jonoon1–5Wuhan Three Towns29 Aug · away
Pick: Qingdao Jonoon 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 07:30 UTC. The match is played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Yunnan Yukun win 55.9%, draw 20.9%, Wuhan Three Towns win 23.2%. The pick is Yunnan Yukun win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.7%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.