ScoreProb
Liga Alef Israel South - 10 2026

Shimshon Tel Aviv vs Tzeirey Tira

Shimshon Tel Aviv Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tzeirey Tira Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shimshon Tel Aviv win
Shimshon Tel Aviv winPick
38.6%
Draw
31.9%
Tzeirey Tira win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Shimshon Tel Aviv history34 matches
Tzeirey Tira history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Shimshon Tel Aviv are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tzeirey Tira are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,505. On rating alone Tzeirey Tira would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 34 matches for Shimshon Tel Aviv, against 1.35 over 31 for Tzeirey Tira.

  • Tzeirey Tira concede fewer

    Shimshon Tel Aviv concede 1.32 a game, Tzeirey Tira 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Shimshon Tel Aviv matches, against 45% for Tzeirey Tira. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 27 Feb 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shimshon Tel Aviv
Tzeirey Tira
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.1
ELO
1531.1
34
ELO · Matches
31
1505.1
Current Team ELO
1531.1
1531.1
Current Opponent ELO
1505.1
-25.99
Current ELO Difference
25.99
0.46
Expected score
0.54
34
History Matches
31
0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
50.79
Overperformance
53.59
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.90
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
31
1.38
PPG
1.61
35.3%
Win rate
48.4%
32.4%
Draw rate
16.1%
32.4%
Loss rate
35.5%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
38.2%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
12.9%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
14
1.22
PPG
1.79
27.8%
Win rate
57.1%
38.9%
Draw rate
7.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
35.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
18
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.35
76.5%
Scoring rate
71.0%
52.9%
BTTS rate
35.5%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.50
77.8%
Scoring rate
78.6%
61.1%
BTTS rate
35.7%
34
History Matches
31
1.29
Goals Mean
1.35
1.10
Goals Std
1.23
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.0%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
38.7%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.32
Goals against per game
1.00
73.5%
Conceding rate
58.1%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.00
77.8%
Conceding rate
57.1%
34
History Matches
31
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.08
Conceded Std
1.05
41.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.3%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.5%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
31
1.00
Result entropy
0.92
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.79
0.08
Stability score
7.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
31
9
Lead Matches
11
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
1.00
9
Trailing Matches
7
44.4%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
253.8
Rest days
260.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
17
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.16
Portability PPG Range
0.10
86.52
Portability Score
90.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-25.99
PPG-0.23
GF-0.06
GA0.32
PPG-0.56
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.32
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches3
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-7.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.26
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate30.2%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-4.02
Rest days-7.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO-25.99
Current Opponent ELO25.99
Current ELO Difference-51.99
Expected score-0.07
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-2.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shimshon Tel Aviv

L
Maccabi Yavne2–0Shimshon Tel Aviv2 Nov · away
Pick: Maccabi Yavne 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tzeirey Tira

L
Tzeirey Tira0–1Hapoel Hadera19 Oct · home
Pick: Tzeirey Tira 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Shimshon Tel Aviv and Tzeirey Tira meet in Liga Alef on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Shimshon Tel Aviv win 38.6%, draw 31.9%, Tzeirey Tira win 29.6%. The pick is Shimshon Tel Aviv win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.