ScoreProb
Premijer Liga Bosnia & Herzegovina Round 13 2026

Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Siroki Brijeg Home · Elo 1,509
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Away · Elo 1,508
Stadion Pecara Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Siroki Brijeg win
Siroki Brijeg winPick
51.4%
Draw
25.1%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win
23.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%

How much we know

Siroki Brijeg history73 matches
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Siroki Brijeg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,509 against 1,508. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score more

    1.16 goals a game over 73 matches for Siroki Brijeg, against 1.33 over 72 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.

  • Defences are close

    Siroki Brijeg concede 1.29 a game, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Siroki Brijeg matches, against 46% for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Siroki Brijeg
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.5
ELO
1507.5
73
ELO · Matches
72
1508.5
Current Team ELO
1507.5
1507.5
Current Opponent ELO
1508.5
1.03
Current ELO Difference
-1.03
0.50
Expected score
0.50
73
History Matches
72
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.97
Overperformance
50.36
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.40
0.80
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
72
1.37
PPG
1.47
37.0%
Win rate
41.7%
26.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
37.0%
Loss rate
36.1%
69.9%
Over 1.5 rate
65.3%
46.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
36
1.69
PPG
1.11
48.7%
Win rate
33.3%
23.1%
Draw rate
11.1%
28.2%
Loss rate
55.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
41.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
39
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.33
71.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.7%
BTTS rate
40.3%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.06
82.1%
Scoring rate
58.3%
48.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
73
History Matches
72
1.16
Goals Mean
1.33
1.06
Goals Std
1.46
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
34.7%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.18
71.2%
Conceding rate
65.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.39
61.5%
Conceding rate
72.2%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.50
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
73
History Matches
72
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.23
Conceded Std
1.18
34.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.9%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
72
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.70
Goal Difference Std
2.00
1.14
Stability score
2.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
72
23
Lead Matches
16
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.90
25
Trailing Matches
22
16.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.89
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
49
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.51
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.33
PPG
1.50
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.46
Portability PPG Range
1.23
49.95
Portability Score
49.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO1.03
PPG-0.10
GF-0.17
GA0.11
PPG0.83
PPG0.58
PPG1.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate4.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate2.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-1.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.17
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score0.69
Rest days1.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO1.03
Current Opponent ELO-1.03
Current ELO Difference2.05
Expected score0.00
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Siroki Brijeg

D
Siroki Brijeg0–0Čelik24 Oct · home
Pick: Siroki Brijeg 65% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

W
Sloboda Tuzla0–1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo27 Oct · away
Pick: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo meet in Premijer Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Pecara. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Siroki Brijeg win 51.4%, draw 25.1%, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win 23.5%. The pick is Siroki Brijeg win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.5%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.