ScoreProb
Premijer Liga Bosnia & Herzegovina Round 13 2026

Borac Banja Luka vs Radnik Bijeljina

Borac Banja Luka Home · Elo 1,697
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Radnik Bijeljina Away · Elo 1,448
Gradski stadion Banja Luka Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Borac Banja Luka win
Borac Banja Luka winPick
78.4%
Draw
15.4%
Radnik Bijeljina win
6.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.5%
No58.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Borac Banja Luka history80 matches
Radnik Bijeljina history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (78.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Borac Banja Luka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Borac Banja Luka are rated 248 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,697 against 1,448. On rating alone Borac Banja Luka would be expected to take 81% of the points on offer.

  • Borac Banja Luka score far more

    1.74 goals a game over 80 matches for Borac Banja Luka, against 1.07 over 71 for Radnik Bijeljina.

  • Borac Banja Luka concede fewer

    Borac Banja Luka concede 0.69 a game, Radnik Bijeljina 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Borac Banja Luka matches, against 44% for Radnik Bijeljina. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Borac Banja Luka
Radnik Bijeljina@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1696.6
ELO
1448.2
80
ELO · Matches
71
1696.6
Current Team ELO
1448.2
1448.2
Current Opponent ELO
1696.6
248.4
Current ELO Difference
-248.4
0.81
Expected score
0.19
80
History Matches
71
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.04
60.21
Overperformance
46.77
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.60
1.50
Goals for per game
0.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.30
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
71
2.18
PPG
1.07
66.3%
Win rate
28.2%
18.8%
Draw rate
22.5%
15.0%
Loss rate
49.3%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.4%
38.8%
Over 2.5 rate
43.7%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.9%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
38
2.45
PPG
0.63
77.3%
Win rate
13.2%
13.6%
Draw rate
23.7%
9.1%
Loss rate
63.2%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
44
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.74
Goals for per game
1.07
87.5%
Scoring rate
57.7%
36.3%
BTTS rate
39.4%
2.11
Goals for per game
0.79
93.2%
Scoring rate
50.0%
38.6%
BTTS rate
44.7%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
80
History Matches
71
1.74
Goals Mean
1.07
1.30
Goals Std
1.29
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
57.7%
47.5%
Scored 2+ rate
25.4%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
2.11
Venue Goals Mean
0.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.69
Goals against per game
1.35
43.8%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.61
Goals against per game
1.68
43.2%
Conceding rate
84.2%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.33
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
80
History Matches
71
0.69
Conceded Mean
1.35
0.98
Conceded Std
1.33
15.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.1%
0.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
56.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
56.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
71
0.79
Result entropy
0.95
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.93
20.70
Stability score
5.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
70
37
Lead Matches
18
83.8%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.87
9
Trailing Matches
22
33.3%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.98
Rest days
76.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
48
Normal Rest History Matches
34
2.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
23
Long Rest History Matches
29
2.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
0.33
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
2
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.67
11
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.89
1.25
Portability PPG Range
2.67
52.19
Portability Score
36.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO248.4
PPG1.10
GF0.67
GA-0.66
PPG2.67
PPG1.82
PPG1.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate25.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate41.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.43
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate29.8%
Scored 2+ rate22.1%
Scored 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.66
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate25.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-1.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score15.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate0.5%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate24.2%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.67
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-1.42
Portability Score16.17
Rest days-0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.09
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.53
Current Team ELO248.4
Current Opponent ELO-248.4
Current ELO Difference496.8
Expected score0.61
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance13.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Borac Banja Luka

W
Cazin0–2Borac Banja Luka28 Oct · away
Pick: Borac Banja Luka 37% · hit
W
Borac Banja Luka2–0Sloga Doboj25 Oct · home
Pick: Borac Banja Luka 77% · hit
W
Borac Banja Luka2–0KuPS22 Oct · home
Pick: KuPS 39% · missed
L
Panathinaikos2–1Borac Banja Luka15 Oct · away
Pick: Panathinaikos 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Radnik Bijeljina

W
Zvijezda 090–1Radnik Bijeljina27 Oct · away
Pick: Zvijezda 09 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Borac Banja Luka and Radnik Bijeljina meet in Premijer Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Gradski stadion Banja Luka. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Borac Banja Luka win 78.4%, draw 15.4%, Radnik Bijeljina win 6.2%. The pick is Borac Banja Luka win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 41.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.