Velež vs Čelik
Match result probability Model pick: Velež win
Velež winPick
52.1%
Draw
21.6%
Čelik win
26.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.6%
No51.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.7%
Under 2.547.3%
How much we know
Velež history76 matches
Čelik history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Velež
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Velež are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Čelik are rated 48 Elo points higher
Elo 1,601 against 1,553. On rating alone Čelik would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Čelik score more
1.18 goals a game over 76 matches for Velež, against 1.74 over 46 for Čelik.
-
Čelik concede fewer
Velež concede 1.04 a game, Čelik 0.93.
-
Čelik games more often go over 2.5 goals
41% of Velež matches, against 54% for Čelik. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1552.8
ELO
1600.8
76
ELO · Matches
46
1552.8
Current Team ELO
1600.8
1600.8
Current Opponent ELO
1552.8
-48.03
Current ELO Difference
48.03
0.43
Expected score
0.57
76
History Matches
46
0.03
Residual Mean
0.11
52.38
Overperformance
57.44
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
76
Matches
46
1.47
PPG
1.93
40.8%
Win rate
56.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.9%
34.2%
Loss rate
19.6%
61.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.1%
40.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals 100
36
Matches
23
1.69
PPG
1.61
47.2%
Win rate
43.5%
27.8%
Draw rate
30.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
26.1%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
36
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.74
65.8%
Scoring rate
84.8%
43.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.30
75.0%
Scoring rate
78.3%
44.4%
BTTS rate
56.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
76
History Matches
46
1.18
Goals Mean
1.74
1.16
Goals Std
1.28
65.8%
Scored 1+ rate
84.8%
34.2%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
13.2%
Scored 3+ rate
26.1%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.04
Goals against per game
0.93
68.4%
Conceding rate
58.7%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.17
58.3%
Conceding rate
65.2%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
46
1.04
Conceded Mean
0.93
0.91
Conceded Std
1.01
27.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.7%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
76
History Matches
46
0.98
Result entropy
0.90
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.76
1.76
Stability score
10.45
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
76
Eligible Matches
46
22
Lead Matches
21
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.87
25
Trailing Matches
9
32.0%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.89
Rest days
75.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.89
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.11
20
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.84
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
8
Competition Season Count
5
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.59
Portability PPG Std
1.00
1.40
Portability PPG Range
2.27
45.95
Portability Score
33.35
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
76
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-48.03
PPG-0.46
GF-0.55
GA0.10
PPG1.00
PPG0.09
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches30
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate19.0%
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches30
Goals Mean-0.55
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches30
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches30
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-8.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches30
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-0.87
Portability Score12.60
Rest days0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.11
Normal Rest History Matches27
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Current Team ELO-48.03
Current Opponent ELO48.03
Current ELO Difference-96.05
Expected score-0.14
History Matches30
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Velež and Čelik meet in Premijer Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Rodjeni, Mostar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Velež win 52.1%, draw 21.6%, Čelik win 26.4%. The pick is Velež win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.7%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.