ScoreProb
Premijer Liga Bosnia & Herzegovina Round 13 2026

Sloga Doboj vs BSK Banja Luka

Sloga Doboj Home · Elo 1,459
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
BSK Banja Luka Away · Elo 1,583
Stadion Luke Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: BSK Banja Luka win
Sloga Doboj win
34.6%
Draw
29.8%
BSK Banja Luka winPick
35.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.2%
No55.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Sloga Doboj history67 matches
BSK Banja Luka history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why BSK Banja Luka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • BSK Banja Luka are rated 124 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,583 against 1,459. On rating alone BSK Banja Luka would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • BSK Banja Luka score far more

    0.85 goals a game over 67 matches for Sloga Doboj, against 1.67 over 46 for BSK Banja Luka.

  • BSK Banja Luka concede fewer

    Sloga Doboj concede 1.33 a game, BSK Banja Luka 1.09.

  • BSK Banja Luka games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Sloga Doboj matches, against 59% for BSK Banja Luka. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sloga Doboj
BSK Banja Luka@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1459.0
ELO
1582.9
67
ELO · Matches
46
1459.0
Current Team ELO
1582.9
1582.9
Current Opponent ELO
1459.0
-124.0
Current ELO Difference
124.0
0.33
Expected score
0.67
67
History Matches
46
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.09
47.52
Overperformance
56.05
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
46
1.12
PPG
1.98
29.9%
Win rate
60.9%
22.4%
Draw rate
15.2%
47.8%
Loss rate
23.9%
56.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.7%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
23
1.31
PPG
1.52
37.5%
Win rate
47.8%
18.8%
Draw rate
8.7%
43.8%
Loss rate
43.5%
56.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
32
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.85
Goals for per game
1.67
47.8%
Scoring rate
78.3%
28.4%
BTTS rate
43.5%
0.84
Goals for per game
1.30
46.9%
Scoring rate
73.9%
25.0%
BTTS rate
52.2%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
67
History Matches
46
0.85
Goals Mean
1.67
1.25
Goals Std
1.27
47.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.3%
20.9%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
7.5%
Scored 3+ rate
30.4%
0.84
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.09
65.7%
Conceding rate
58.7%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.48
65.6%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
67
History Matches
46
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.31
Conceded Std
1.32
34.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.1%
25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
52.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
53.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
52.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
53.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
46
0.95
Result entropy
0.85
2.00
Goal Difference Std
2.08
4.53
Stability score
15.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
46
16
Lead Matches
19
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.93
22
Trailing Matches
12
9.1%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.89
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
42
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
0.50
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.55
0.56
Portability PPG Range
1.27
66.67
Portability Score
47.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-124.0
PPG-0.86
GF-0.82
GA0.24
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.21
PPG1.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate30.5%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate27.0%
History Matches21
Goals Mean-0.82
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.30
Scored 2+ rate-0.29
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches21
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate12.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.49
History Matches21
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-10.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.77
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.71
Portability Score18.83
Rest days-1.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.42
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.07
Current Team ELO-124.0
Current Opponent ELO124.0
Current ELO Difference-248.0
Expected score-0.34
History Matches21
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sloga Doboj

W
FK Romanija Pale0–4Sloga Doboj28 Oct · away
Pick: Sloga Doboj 48% · hit
L
Borac Banja Luka2–0Sloga Doboj25 Oct · away
Pick: Borac Banja Luka 77% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

BSK Banja Luka

W
Velež2–3BSK Banja Luka25 Oct · away
Pick: Velež 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sloga Doboj and BSK Banja Luka meet in Premijer Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Luke. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sloga Doboj win 34.6%, draw 29.8%, BSK Banja Luka win 35.6%. The pick is BSK Banja Luka win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 44.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.