ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 16 2026

Slough Town vs Walton & Hersham

Slough Town Home · Elo 1,442
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Walton & Hersham Away · Elo 1,571
Arbour Park, Slough Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Slough Town win
Slough Town winPick
50.5%
Draw
19.8%
Walton & Hersham win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%

How much we know

Slough Town history81 matches
Walton & Hersham history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Slough Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Walton & Hersham are rated 129 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,571 against 1,442. On rating alone Walton & Hersham would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Walton & Hersham score more

    1.51 goals a game over 81 matches for Slough Town, against 2.06 over 78 for Walton & Hersham.

  • Walton & Hersham concede fewer

    Slough Town concede 1.88 a game, Walton & Hersham 1.12.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Slough Town matches, against 62% for Walton & Hersham. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Slough Town
Walton & Hersham
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1442.1
ELO
1571.0
81
ELO · Matches
78
1442.1
Current Team ELO
1571.0
1571.0
Current Opponent ELO
1442.1
-128.9
Current ELO Difference
128.9
0.32
Expected score
0.68
81
History Matches
78
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
47.25
Overperformance
53.27
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.52
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.40
2.80
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.20
1.70
Goals for per game
0.50
3.40
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
3.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
81
Matches
78
1.22
PPG
2.03
34.6%
Win rate
62.8%
18.5%
Draw rate
14.1%
46.9%
Loss rate
23.1%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
61.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
42.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
39
1.46
PPG
1.90
41.5%
Win rate
59.0%
22.0%
Draw rate
12.8%
36.6%
Loss rate
28.2%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
41
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
2.06
80.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
65.4%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.90
90.2%
Scoring rate
79.5%
65.9%
BTTS rate
53.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.25
66.7%
Scoring rate
25.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
25.0%
81
History Matches
78
1.51
Goals Mean
2.06
1.15
Goals Std
1.54
80.2%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
43.2%
Scored 2+ rate
61.5%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.88
Goals against per game
1.12
81.5%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.26
73.2%
Conceding rate
71.8%
3.67
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
81
History Matches
78
1.88
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.48
Conceded Std
1.04
55.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
24.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
19.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
19.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
81
History Matches
78
0.94
Result entropy
0.83
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.95
5.83
Stability score
17.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
81
Eligible Matches
78
19
Lead Matches
34
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
85.3%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.89
36
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
13.9%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.91
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
67
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.07
9
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
3
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.75
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.69
Portability PPG Std
0.98
2.33
Portability PPG Range
2.47
42.02
Portability Score
33.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
81
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-128.9
PPG-0.80
GF-0.56
GA0.76
PPG0.00
PPG-0.43
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate3.1%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.60
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.76
Conceded Std0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate24.8%
Conceded 3+ rate14.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.46
History Matches3
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-11.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches20
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate1.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.08
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score8.15
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO-128.9
Current Opponent ELO128.9
Current ELO Difference-257.9
Expected score-0.35
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Slough Town

L
Maidstone Utd2–1Slough Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Maidstone Utd 71% · hit
L
Truro City3–1Slough Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Truro City 64% · hit
L
Slough Town1–3Dorking Wanderers24 Oct · home
Pick: Dorking Wanderers 55% · hit
L
Slough Town1–2Horsham17 Oct · home
Pick: Horsham 52% · hit
L
Dagenham & Redbridge1–0Slough Town31 Aug · away
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 66% · hit

Walton & Hersham

L
Walton & Hersham0–3Torquay31 Oct · home
Pick: Torquay 41% · hit
L
Walton & Hersham0–2Salisbury27 Oct · home
Pick: Salisbury 46% · hit
L
Horsham1–0Walton & Hersham24 Oct · away
Pick: Horsham 55% · hit
W
Braintree1–3Walton & Hersham6 Oct · away
Pick: Braintree 51% · missed
L
Tonbridge Angels5–1Walton & Hersham31 Aug · away
Pick: Tonbridge Angels 54% · hit

About this match

Slough Town and Walton & Hersham meet in National League - South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Arbour Park, Slough. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Slough Town win 50.5%, draw 19.8%, Walton & Hersham win 29.7%. The pick is Slough Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.3%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.