ScoreProb
National League - North England National League North - 16 2026

South Shields vs Southport

South Shields Home · Elo 1,609
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Southport Away · Elo 1,540
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: South Shields win
South Shields winPick
51.6%
Draw
25.3%
Southport win
23.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

South Shields history86 matches
Southport history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why South Shields are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • South Shields are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,609 against 1,540. On rating alone South Shields would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • South Shields score more

    1.80 goals a game over 86 matches for South Shields, against 1.33 over 87 for Southport.

  • South Shields concede fewer

    South Shields concede 1.16 a game, Southport 1.38.

  • South Shields games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of South Shields matches, against 49% for Southport. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
South Shields
Southport
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1609.3
ELO
1540.0
86
ELO · Matches
87
1609.3
Current Team ELO
1540.0
1540.0
Current Opponent ELO
1609.3
69.31
Current ELO Difference
-69.31
0.60
Expected score
0.40
86
History Matches
87
0.07
Residual Mean
0.02
56.07
Overperformance
52.02
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
87
1.73
PPG
1.37
51.2%
Win rate
36.8%
19.8%
Draw rate
26.4%
29.1%
Loss rate
36.8%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.5%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
49.4%
32.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
49
Matches
43
1.84
PPG
1.37
55.1%
Win rate
39.5%
18.4%
Draw rate
18.6%
26.5%
Loss rate
41.9%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
61.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
49
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.33
82.6%
Scoring rate
73.6%
55.8%
BTTS rate
58.6%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.26
81.6%
Scoring rate
69.8%
51.0%
BTTS rate
53.5%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
87
1.80
Goals Mean
1.33
1.45
Goals Std
1.07
82.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.6%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
26.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.5%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.38
70.9%
Conceding rate
77.0%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.44
67.3%
Conceding rate
79.1%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
87
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.11
Conceded Std
1.12
29.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.2%
9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
87
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.55
6.93
Stability score
1.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
85
Eligible Matches
87
39
Lead Matches
25
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
88.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.91
22
Trailing Matches
28
18.2%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
71
Normal Rest History Matches
77
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
9
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
1.25
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.25
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.60
Portability PPG Range
1.50
46.95
Portability Score
49.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO69.31
PPG0.36
GF0.47
GA-0.22
PPG1.25
PPG0.46
PPG1.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate9.0%
Scored 2+ rate4.0%
Scored 3+ rate15.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.58
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.53
Stability score5.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-2.75
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO69.31
Current Opponent ELO-69.31
Current ELO Difference138.6
Expected score0.20
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

South Shields

W
Oxford City1–3South Shields31 Oct · away
Pick: Oxford City 40% · missed
W
Spennymoor Town0–1South Shields27 Oct · away
Pick: South Shields 52% · hit
W
South Shields3–1Chester24 Oct · home
Pick: Chester 35% · missed
L
FC Halifax Town3–2South Shields17 Oct · away
Pick: FC Halifax Town 39% · hit
D
South Shields1–1Spalding United31 Aug · home
Pick: South Shields 53% · missed

Southport

L
Southport1–2AFC Telford United31 Oct · home
Pick: Southport 45% · missed
D
King's Lynn Town0–0Southport24 Oct · away
Pick: Southport 39% · missed
L
Southport0–2Radcliffe17 Oct · home
Pick: Southport 56% · missed
L
Southport0–1Hereford31 Aug · home
Pick: Southport 37% · missed
L
Scarborough Athletic5–1Southport29 Aug · away
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 44% · hit

About this match

South Shields and Southport meet in National League - North on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: South Shields win 51.6%, draw 25.3%, Southport win 23.1%. The pick is South Shields win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.