ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 2 Italy Round 8 2026

Spezia U19 vs Cosenza U19

Spezia U19 Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cosenza U19 Away · Elo 1,427
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spezia U19 win
Spezia U19 winPick
58.0%
Draw
20.1%
Cosenza U19 win
21.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%

How much we know

Spezia U19 history49 matches
Cosenza U19 history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Spezia U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Spezia U19 are rated 79 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,427. On rating alone Spezia U19 would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Spezia U19 score more

    1.53 goals a game over 49 matches for Spezia U19, against 1.04 over 46 for Cosenza U19.

  • Spezia U19 concede fewer

    Spezia U19 concede 1.41 a game, Cosenza U19 1.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Spezia U19 matches, against 54% for Cosenza U19. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Spezia U19
Cosenza U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.1
ELO
1426.5
49
ELO · Matches
46
1505.1
Current Team ELO
1426.5
1426.5
Current Opponent ELO
1505.1
78.62
Current ELO Difference
-78.62
0.61
Expected score
0.39
49
History Matches
46
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.08
50.50
Overperformance
44.21
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
46
1.43
PPG
1.04
40.8%
Win rate
26.1%
20.4%
Draw rate
26.1%
38.8%
Loss rate
47.8%
83.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
59.2%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
24
1.84
PPG
0.79
56.0%
Win rate
20.8%
16.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
28.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
72.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
25
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.53
Goals for per game
1.04
75.5%
Scoring rate
67.4%
59.2%
BTTS rate
54.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.92
88.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
68.0%
BTTS rate
41.7%
49
History Matches
46
1.53
Goals Mean
1.04
1.37
Goals Std
0.91
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
67.4%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
22.4%
Scored 3+ rate
6.5%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.41
Goals against per game
1.93
79.6%
Conceding rate
84.8%
1.32
Goals against per game
2.50
80.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
49
History Matches
46
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.93
1.12
Conceded Std
1.52
40.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.3%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
2.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
46
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.92
3.75
Stability score
4.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
42
17
Lead Matches
8
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.63
17
Trailing Matches
21
35.3%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
78.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.39
Portability PPG Range
0.64
46.77
Portability Score
61.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO78.62
PPG0.39
GF0.49
GA-0.53
PPG1.05
PPG-0.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.46
Scored 1+ rate8.1%
Scored 2+ rate10.4%
Scored 3+ rate15.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.53
Conceded Std-0.40
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-0.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate26.5%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate8.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-14.26
Rest days103.8
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO78.62
Current Opponent ELO-78.62
Current ELO Difference157.2
Expected score0.22
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Spezia U19

L
Napoli U202–1Spezia U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Spezia U19 43% · missed
L
Napoli U193–1Spezia U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Spezia U19 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cosenza U19

D
Latina U193–3Cosenza U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Cosenza U19 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Spezia U19 and Cosenza U19 meet in Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Spezia U19 win 58.0%, draw 20.1%, Cosenza U19 win 21.9%. The pick is Spezia U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.9%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.