Sporting San Jose vs Perez Zeledon
What we said before kickoff Result: Sporting San Jose win
Sporting San Jose winPick Result
59.6%
Draw
21.4%
Perez Zeledon win
19.0%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickSporting San Jose win · 59.6%
What happenedSporting San Jose win · we gave it 59.6%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 52.3%
What happenedOver · 4 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 53.6%
What happenedYes · 3–1
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Sporting San Jose win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
60%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.7
on average A pick at 60% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalA. Lopez
34' GoalR. Ramirez
39' GoalJ. Mendez
41' 45+4'
GoalA. Fallas
46'
SubstitutionE. Quesada off · A. Amador on
60'
Yellow cardB. Segura
SubstitutionA. Lopez off · D. Colindres on
65' SubstitutionR. Ramirez off · J. Navarro on
65' 68'
SubstitutionA. Fallas off · C. Solano on
68'
SubstitutionA. Porras off · W. Renteria on
68'
SubstitutionK. Gonzalez off · M. Angulo on
SubstitutionG. Leiva off · M. Urena on
80' SubstitutionR. Carballo off · E. Pastrana on
80' 82'
SubstitutionR. Rodriguez off · K. Rios on
SubstitutionJ. Mendez off · I. Gomez on
86' Both teams to score
Yes46.4%
No53.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%
How much we know
Sporting San Jose history62 matches
Perez Zeledon history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 01:00 UTC
- Full time: 3–1One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Sporting San Jose are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Sporting San Jose are rated 63 Elo points higher
Elo 1,495 against 1,432. On rating alone Sporting San Jose would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.03 goals a game over 62 matches for Sporting San Jose, against 0.95 over 57 for Perez Zeledon.
-
Sporting San Jose concede fewer
Sporting San Jose concede 1.21 a game, Perez Zeledon 1.47.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
45% of Sporting San Jose matches, against 47% for Perez Zeledon. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Perez Zeledon@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1495.2
ELO
1431.8
62
ELO · Matches
57
1495.2
Current Team ELO
1431.8
1431.8
Current Opponent ELO
1495.2
63.40
Current ELO Difference
-63.40
0.59
Expected score
0.41
62
History Matches
57
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.06
50.06
Overperformance
45.86
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals 90
62
Matches
57
1.23
PPG
0.91
32.3%
Win rate
19.3%
25.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
41.9%
Loss rate
47.4%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
16.1%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
28
1.19
PPG
0.64
31.3%
Win rate
10.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
32.1%
43.8%
Loss rate
57.1%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
60.7%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
32
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.03
Goals for per game
0.95
58.1%
Scoring rate
59.6%
45.2%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.06
Goals for per game
0.61
62.5%
Scoring rate
46.4%
46.9%
BTTS rate
39.3%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
62
History Matches
57
1.03
Goals Mean
0.95
1.08
Goals Std
1.02
58.1%
Scored 1+ rate
59.6%
32.3%
Scored 2+ rate
22.8%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
10.5%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
0.61
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.21
Goals against per game
1.47
74.2%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.57
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
62
History Matches
57
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.02
Conceded Std
1.26
32.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.1%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.6%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
41.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
53.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
41.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
53.6%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
62
History Matches
57
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.61
1.79
Stability score
5.55
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
62
Eligible Matches
57
14
Lead Matches
9
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
21
18.8%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.96
Rest days
74.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.70
16
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
0.80
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.48
Portability PPG Range
0.36
73.67
Portability Score
78.76
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
62
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO63.40
PPG0.31
GF0.08
GA-0.26
PPG0.80
PPG0.54
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate9.5%
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches5
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-3.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate0.00
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score-5.08
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO63.40
Current Opponent ELO-63.40
Current ELO Difference126.8
Expected score0.18
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Sporting San Jose
W
Sporting San Jose1–0CS Herediano1 Nov · home
Pick: Sporting San Jose 47% · hit W
Escorpiones Belén2–4Sporting San Jose24 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting San Jose 40% · hit D
Sporting San Jose3–3San Carlos20 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting San Jose 55% · missed L
Deportivo Saprissa6–0Sporting San Jose16 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 58% · hit W
Sporting San Jose2–0Inter San Carlos29 Aug · home
Pick: Inter San Carlos 36% · missed Perez Zeledon
D
Perez Zeledon1–1Puntarenas FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Puntarenas FC 39% · missed L
LD Alajuelense1–0Perez Zeledon26 Oct · away
Pick: LD Alajuelense 68% · hit L
Perez Zeledon0–3CS Herediano18 Oct · home
Pick: Perez Zeledon 41% · missed L
Perez Zeledon1–4Escorpiones Belén14 Oct · home
Pick: Perez Zeledon 45% · missed D
Perez Zeledon1–1LD Alajuelense30 Aug · home
Pick: LD Alajuelense 58% · missed Match report
Sporting San Jose and Perez Zeledon finished 3–1 in Primera División on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 3–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Sporting San Jose win 59.6%, draw 21.4%, Perez Zeledon win 19.0%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.