ScoreProb
Primera División Costa Rica Round 15 2026

Inter San Carlos vs CS Cartagines

Inter San Carlos Home · Elo 1,665
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
CS Cartagines Away · Elo 1,561
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Inter San Carlos win
Inter San Carlos winPick
36.7%
Draw
29.1%
CS Cartagines win
34.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.5%
No56.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.0%
Under 2.557.0%

How much we know

Inter San Carlos history65 matches
CS Cartagines history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Inter San Carlos are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Inter San Carlos are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,665 against 1,561. On rating alone Inter San Carlos would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Inter San Carlos score more

    1.63 goals a game over 65 matches for Inter San Carlos, against 1.34 over 71 for CS Cartagines.

  • Inter San Carlos concede fewer

    Inter San Carlos concede 0.82 a game, CS Cartagines 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Inter San Carlos matches, against 42% for CS Cartagines. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Inter San Carlos
CS Cartagines
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1664.6
ELO
1560.9
65
ELO · Matches
71
1664.6
Current Team ELO
1560.9
1560.9
Current Opponent ELO
1664.6
103.7
Current ELO Difference
-103.7
0.65
Expected score
0.35
65
History Matches
71
0.12
Residual Mean
0.04
59.30
Overperformance
53.01
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.70
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
71
2.08
PPG
1.54
60.0%
Win rate
43.7%
27.7%
Draw rate
22.5%
12.3%
Loss rate
33.8%
75.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.2%
41.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.7%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
37
2.53
PPG
1.19
78.1%
Win rate
29.7%
18.8%
Draw rate
29.7%
3.1%
Loss rate
40.5%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
59.5%
34.4%
Over 2.5 rate
29.7%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
32
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
1.34
86.2%
Scoring rate
70.4%
49.2%
BTTS rate
49.3%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.05
90.6%
Scoring rate
59.5%
37.5%
BTTS rate
43.2%
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
65
History Matches
71
1.63
Goals Mean
1.34
1.05
Goals Std
1.41
86.2%
Scored 1+ rate
70.4%
52.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.8%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.5%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.82
Goals against per game
1.00
53.8%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.56
Goals against per game
1.08
40.6%
Conceding rate
70.3%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
71
0.82
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.93
Conceded Std
0.89
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.9%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
0.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
59.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
59.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
71
0.84
Result entropy
0.97
1.29
Goal Difference Std
1.73
16.27
Stability score
3.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
71
29
Lead Matches
20
86.2%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.83
10
Trailing Matches
18
70.0%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.08
Rest days
75.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
10
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.70
38
Normal Rest History Matches
42
2.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.80
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
4
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.33
85.53
Portability Score
82.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO103.7
PPG0.54
GF0.29
GA-0.18
PPG0.20
PPG1.34
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate15.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate29.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate15.7%
Scored 2+ rate18.5%
Scored 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.79
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate15.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score13.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate6.2%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate42.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.40
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score3.07
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.55
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.58
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO103.7
Current Opponent ELO-103.7
Current ELO Difference207.5
Expected score0.29
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Inter San Carlos

L
Inter San Carlos2–3Escorpiones Belén31 Oct · home
Pick: Inter San Carlos 64% · missed
L
Puntarenas FC3–1Inter San Carlos25 Oct · away
Pick: Inter San Carlos 45% · missed
L
Inter San Carlos2–3LD Alajuelense18 Oct · home
Pick: LD Alajuelense 44% · hit
W
San Carlos1–2Inter San Carlos14 Oct · away
Pick: Inter San Carlos 48% · hit
L
Sporting San Jose2–0Inter San Carlos29 Aug · away
Pick: Inter San Carlos 36% · missed

CS Cartagines

W
CS Cartagines3–0San Carlos1 Nov · home
Pick: CS Cartagines 59% · hit
D
CD Olimpia2–2CS Cartagines29 Oct · away
Pick: CD Olimpia 47% · missed
L
CS Herediano3–1CS Cartagines25 Oct · away
Pick: CS Herediano 39% · hit
W
CS Cartagines1–0CD Olimpia22 Oct · home
Pick: CS Cartagines 37% · hit
W
CS Cartagines1–0Deportivo Saprissa18 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 42% · missed

About this match

Inter San Carlos and CS Cartagines meet in Primera División on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Inter San Carlos win 36.7%, draw 29.1%, CS Cartagines win 34.1%. The pick is Inter San Carlos win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.0%. Both teams to score: 43.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.