ScoreProb
Primera División Costa Rica Round 15 2026

CS Herediano vs Deportivo Saprissa

CS Herediano Home · Elo 1,577
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo Saprissa Away · Elo 1,636
Estadio Carlos Alvarado, Heredia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo Saprissa win
CS Herediano win
27.0%
Draw
25.0%
Deportivo Saprissa winPick
48.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.1%
Under 2.550.9%

How much we know

CS Herediano history72 matches
Deportivo Saprissa history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 17 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 02:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Deportivo Saprissa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Deportivo Saprissa are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,636 against 1,577. On rating alone Deportivo Saprissa would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Deportivo Saprissa score more

    1.35 goals a game over 72 matches for CS Herediano, against 1.74 over 78 for Deportivo Saprissa.

  • Defences are close

    CS Herediano concede 1.03 a game, Deportivo Saprissa 1.08.

  • Deportivo Saprissa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of CS Herediano matches, against 56% for Deportivo Saprissa. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CS Herediano
Deportivo Saprissa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.0
ELO
1635.7
72
ELO · Matches
78
1577.0
Current Team ELO
1635.7
1635.7
Current Opponent ELO
1577.0
-58.77
Current ELO Difference
58.77
0.42
Expected score
0.58
72
History Matches
78
0.06
Residual Mean
0.08
54.61
Overperformance
56.39
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.40
0.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.10
0.60
Goals for per game
1.90
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
78
1.76
PPG
1.81
51.4%
Win rate
53.8%
22.2%
Draw rate
19.2%
26.4%
Loss rate
26.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
18.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
41
2.05
PPG
1.39
61.5%
Win rate
41.5%
20.5%
Draw rate
14.6%
17.9%
Loss rate
43.9%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
39
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.74
77.8%
Scoring rate
78.2%
44.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.29
84.6%
Scoring rate
68.3%
48.7%
BTTS rate
48.8%
0.40
Goals for per game
2.40
40.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
72
History Matches
78
1.35
Goals Mean
1.74
1.04
Goals Std
1.39
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
53.8%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
26.9%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.08
61.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.39
56.4%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
72
History Matches
78
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.11
Conceded Std
0.96
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
78
0.94
Result entropy
0.91
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.83
6.43
Stability score
8.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
78
19
Lead Matches
35
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
91.4%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
15
26.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.00
Rest days
74.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
14
1.82
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.86
44
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
16
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.40
Current Competition PPG
2.40
-1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.40
9
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.53
1.76
Portability PPG Range
1.48
45.00
Portability Score
48.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-58.77
PPG-0.04
GF-0.40
GA-0.05
PPG-2.00
PPG0.66
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.85
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.46
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-2.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate8.6%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate3.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.28
Portability Score-3.50
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO-58.77
Current Opponent ELO58.77
Current ELO Difference-117.5
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CS Herediano

L
Sporting San Jose1–0CS Herediano1 Nov · away
Pick: Sporting San Jose 47% · hit
W
CS Herediano3–1CS Cartagines25 Oct · home
Pick: CS Herediano 39% · hit
W
Perez Zeledon0–3CS Herediano18 Oct · away
Pick: Perez Zeledon 41% · missed
D
LD Alajuelense1–1CS Herediano15 Oct · away
Pick: LD Alajuelense 62% · missed
L
CS Cartagines1–0CS Herediano30 Aug · away
Pick: CS Cartagines 53% · hit

Deportivo Saprissa

D
Deportivo Saprissa0–0LD Alajuelense1 Nov · home
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 48% · missed
W
Deportivo Saprissa2–1Firpo29 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 40% · hit
L
San Carlos2–1Deportivo Saprissa25 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 57% · missed
D
Firpo0–0Deportivo Saprissa22 Oct · away
Pick: Firpo 40% · missed
L
CS Cartagines1–0Deportivo Saprissa18 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 42% · missed

About this match

CS Herediano and Deportivo Saprissa meet in Primera División on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 02:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Carlos Alvarado, Heredia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: CS Herediano win 27.0%, draw 25.0%, Deportivo Saprissa win 48.0%. The pick is Deportivo Saprissa win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.1%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.