ScoreProb
Second Amateur Division - ACFF Belgium ACFF - 12 2026

Stade Verviers vs La Calamine

Stade Verviers Home · Elo 1,549
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
La Calamine Away · Elo 1,492
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stade Verviers win
Stade Verviers winPick
43.4%
Draw
25.8%
La Calamine win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Stade Verviers history45 matches
La Calamine history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Stade Verviers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stade Verviers are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,549 against 1,492. On rating alone Stade Verviers would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 45 matches for Stade Verviers, against 1.29 over 42 for La Calamine.

  • Stade Verviers concede fewer

    Stade Verviers concede 0.98 a game, La Calamine 1.31.

  • La Calamine games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Stade Verviers matches, against 50% for La Calamine. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stade Verviers
La Calamine
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1549.2
ELO
1492.1
45
ELO · Matches
42
1549.2
Current Team ELO
1492.1
1492.1
Current Opponent ELO
1549.2
57.10
Current ELO Difference
-57.10
0.58
Expected score
0.42
45
History Matches
42
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
53.87
Overperformance
48.77
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
42
1.60
PPG
1.29
44.4%
Win rate
33.3%
26.7%
Draw rate
28.6%
28.9%
Loss rate
38.1%
57.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
1.61
PPG
0.91
47.8%
Win rate
21.7%
17.4%
Draw rate
26.1%
34.8%
Loss rate
52.2%
56.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.29
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
42.2%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.00
73.9%
Scoring rate
60.9%
47.8%
BTTS rate
47.8%
45
History Matches
42
1.18
Goals Mean
1.29
1.10
Goals Std
1.24
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.98
Goals against per game
1.31
57.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.65
65.2%
Conceding rate
78.3%
45
History Matches
42
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.06
Conceded Std
1.14
28.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.2%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
42.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
42
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.72
2.46
Stability score
0.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
27
6
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
3
Trailing Matches
9
100.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.2
Rest days
115.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
16
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.81
Portability PPG Range
0.14
55.17
Portability Score
87.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO57.10
PPG0.31
GF-0.11
GA-0.33
PPG0.70
PPG1.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score1.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate66.7%
Trailing Win Rate22.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-32.49
Rest days66.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO57.10
Current Opponent ELO-57.10
Current ELO Difference114.2
Expected score0.16
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stade Verviers

L
Stade Mouscronnois2–1Stade Verviers31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
D
Stade Verviers2–2RUS Binche24 Oct · home
Pick: Stade Verviers 43% · missed
L
AS Eupen II4–2Stade Verviers18 Oct · away
Pick: Stade Verviers 47% · missed
L
Crossing Schaerbeek4–3Stade Verviers4 Oct · away
Pick: Crossing Schaerbeek 38% · hit
W
Stade Verviers3–1Stockay-Warfusée29 Aug · home
Pick: Stade Verviers 43% · hit

La Calamine

W
La Calamine4–1Huy31 Oct · home
Pick: La Calamine 39% · hit
L
Richelle United3–2La Calamine24 Oct · away
Pick: Richelle United 37% · hit
W
La Calamine1–0Ganshoren17 Oct · home
Pick: Ganshoren 43% · missed
L
La Calamine0–1SG-Tertre-Hautrage29 Aug · home
Pick: La Calamine 64% · missed
L
Crossing Schaerbeek1–0La Calamine26 Aug · away
Pick: Crossing Schaerbeek 49% · hit

About this match

Stade Verviers and La Calamine meet in Second Amateur Division - ACFF on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Stade Verviers win 43.4%, draw 25.8%, La Calamine win 30.8%. The pick is Stade Verviers win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.