ScoreProb
Ettan - Norra Sweden Norra - 30 2026

Stocksund vs FBK Karlstad

Stocksund Home · Elo 1,400
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FBK Karlstad Away · Elo 1,560
Danderyd IP Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FBK Karlstad win
Stocksund win
33.1%
Draw
21.3%
FBK Karlstad winPick
45.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.7%
No34.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.4%
Under 2.527.6%

How much we know

Stocksund history61 matches
FBK Karlstad history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FBK Karlstad are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FBK Karlstad are rated 159 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,560 against 1,400. On rating alone FBK Karlstad would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • FBK Karlstad score more

    1.69 goals a game over 61 matches for Stocksund, against 1.93 over 56 for FBK Karlstad.

  • FBK Karlstad concede fewer

    Stocksund concede 2.52 a game, FBK Karlstad 1.36.

  • Stocksund games more often go over 2.5 goals

    80% of Stocksund matches, against 63% for FBK Karlstad. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stocksund
FBK Karlstad
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1400.4
ELO
1559.8
61
ELO · Matches
56
1400.4
Current Team ELO
1559.8
1559.8
Current Opponent ELO
1400.4
-159.4
Current ELO Difference
159.4
0.29
Expected score
0.71
61
History Matches
56
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.05
43.64
Overperformance
53.47
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.70
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
2.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.23
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
56
0.93
PPG
1.77
26.2%
Win rate
53.6%
14.8%
Draw rate
16.1%
59.0%
Loss rate
30.4%
91.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
80.3%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
57.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
1.10
PPG
1.48
31.0%
Win rate
41.4%
17.2%
Draw rate
24.1%
51.7%
Loss rate
34.5%
93.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
75.9%
Over 2.5 rate
65.5%
55.2%
Over 3.5 rate
48.3%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.69
Goals for per game
1.93
78.7%
Scoring rate
83.9%
73.8%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.93
79.3%
Scoring rate
82.8%
69.0%
BTTS rate
69.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
72.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
55.6%
61
History Matches
56
1.69
Goals Mean
1.93
1.39
Goals Std
1.42
78.7%
Scored 1+ rate
83.9%
50.8%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
23.0%
Scored 3+ rate
32.1%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.52
Goals against per game
1.36
95.1%
Conceding rate
67.9%
2.38
Goals against per game
1.45
89.7%
Conceding rate
79.3%
2.44
Goals against per game
1.56
94.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
61
History Matches
56
2.52
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.60
Conceded Std
1.52
72.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
41.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
2.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
4.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
10.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
4.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
10.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
4.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
56
0.86
Result entropy
0.90
2.28
Goal Difference Std
2.36
14.02
Stability score
9.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
53
16
Lead Matches
19
56.3%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.91
30
Trailing Matches
13
16.7%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
1.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.13
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
35
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
0.61
PPG
1.56
11.1%
Win rate
44.4%
27.8%
Draw rate
22.2%
61.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
18
Current Competition Matches
18
0.61
Current Competition PPG
1.56
-0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.06
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.56
Portability PPG Range
0.50
68.79
Portability Score
69.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-159.4
PPG-0.83
GF-0.24
GA1.17
PPG-0.94
PPG-0.38
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std1.22
History Matches5
Conceded Mean1.17
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Conceded 2+ rate40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate23.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.13
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score4.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches17
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.94
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.39
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-0.29
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Current Team ELO-159.4
Current Opponent ELO159.4
Current ELO Difference-318.8
Expected score-0.43
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stocksund

L
Piteå4–3Stocksund1 Nov · away
Pick: Piteå 44% · hit
L
AFC Eskilstuna2–0Stocksund25 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Eskilstuna 60% · hit
L
Stocksund1–3Enköping16 Oct · home
Pick: Enköping 43% · hit
L
Stocksund2–3Arlanda29 Aug · home
Pick: Arlanda 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FBK Karlstad

W
FBK Karlstad2–1Stockholm Internazionale31 Oct · home
Pick: Stockholm Internazionale 54% · missed
L
Gefle IF1–0FBK Karlstad24 Oct · away
Pick: Gefle IF 40% · hit
W
FBK Karlstad3–1Karlberg17 Oct · home
Pick: FBK Karlstad 40% · hit
W
FBK Karlstad4–3Piteå30 Aug · home
Pick: FBK Karlstad 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Stocksund and FBK Karlstad meet in Ettan - Norra on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Danderyd IP. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Stocksund win 33.1%, draw 21.3%, FBK Karlstad win 45.6%. The pick is FBK Karlstad win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.4%. Both teams to score: 65.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.