ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie F Czechia Group F - 15 2026

Šumperk vs Vratimov

Šumperk Home · Elo 1,464
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vratimov Away · Elo 1,560
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vratimov win
Šumperk win
23.1%
Draw
21.8%
Vratimov winPick
55.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%

How much we know

Šumperk history50 matches
Vratimov history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Vratimov are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vratimov are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,560 against 1,464. On rating alone Vratimov would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Vratimov score more

    1.28 goals a game over 50 matches for Šumperk, against 1.72 over 57 for Vratimov.

  • Šumperk concede fewer

    Šumperk concede 1.44 a game, Vratimov 1.65.

  • Vratimov games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Šumperk matches, against 61% for Vratimov. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Šumperk
Vratimov
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.4
ELO
1559.8
50
ELO · Matches
57
1464.4
Current Team ELO
1559.8
1559.8
Current Opponent ELO
1464.4
-95.38
Current ELO Difference
95.38
0.37
Expected score
0.63
50
History Matches
57
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.06
47.43
Overperformance
54.25
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.10
1.90
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
57
1.22
PPG
1.54
30.0%
Win rate
43.9%
32.0%
Draw rate
22.8%
38.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.6%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.08
PPG
1.33
24.0%
Win rate
37.0%
36.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.7%
68.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.72
70.0%
Scoring rate
80.7%
48.0%
BTTS rate
54.4%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.30
64.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
44.0%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
57
1.28
Goals Mean
1.72
1.28
Goals Std
1.37
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.7%
32.0%
Scored 2+ rate
49.1%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.3%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.65
62.0%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.59
60.0%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
57
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.54
Conceded Std
1.63
44.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.1%
18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.6%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
57
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.85
Goal Difference Std
2.46
0.47
Stability score
3.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
56
13
Lead Matches
20
53.8%
Lead Win Rate
95.0%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
0.97
16
Trailing Matches
19
18.8%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
78.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
24
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.26
Portability PPG Range
1.33
81.12
Portability Score
48.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-95.38
PPG-0.32
GF-0.44
GA-0.21
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Conceded 2+ rate1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.65
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.61
Stability score-2.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.41
Lead Points Retention-0.35
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.42
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score32.86
Rest days-1.26
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Current Team ELO-95.38
Current Opponent ELO95.38
Current ELO Difference-190.8
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Šumperk

W
Hlučín1–2Šumperk30 Oct · away
Pick: Hlučín 60% · missed
D
Kravare1–1Šumperk25 Oct · away
Pick: Kravare 52% · missed
D
Šumperk0–0Nový Jičín18 Oct · home
Pick: Šumperk 38% · missed
D
Šumperk1–1Bílovec4 Oct · home
Pick: Šumperk 47% · missed
W
Frýdlant1–5Šumperk29 Aug · away
Pick: Šumperk 47% · hit

Vratimov

L
Vratimov1–2Kravare31 Oct · home
Pick: Vratimov 51% · missed
W
Nový Jičín0–1Vratimov24 Oct · away
Pick: Vratimov 52% · hit
W
Vratimov4–3Pustá Polom17 Oct · home
Pick: Vratimov 60% · hit
W
Stonava1–3Vratimov29 Aug · away
Pick: Vratimov 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Šumperk and Vratimov meet in 4. liga - Divizie F on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Šumperk win 23.1%, draw 21.8%, Vratimov win 55.0%. The pick is Vratimov win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.