ScoreProb
II Liga - East Poland Round 15 2026

Świt Skolwin vs Śląsk Wrocław II

Świt Skolwin Home · Elo 1,470
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Śląsk Wrocław II Away · Elo 1,530
Stadion Miejski Skolwin, Szczecin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Śląsk Wrocław II win
Świt Skolwin win
31.7%
Draw
18.1%
Śląsk Wrocław II winPick
50.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.6%
No39.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.3%
Under 2.534.7%

How much we know

Świt Skolwin history68 matches
Śląsk Wrocław II history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Śląsk Wrocław II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Śląsk Wrocław II are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,470. On rating alone Śląsk Wrocław II would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Śląsk Wrocław II score more

    1.57 goals a game over 68 matches for Świt Skolwin, against 1.91 over 69 for Śląsk Wrocław II.

  • Śląsk Wrocław II concede fewer

    Świt Skolwin concede 1.91 a game, Śląsk Wrocław II 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Świt Skolwin matches, against 62% for Śląsk Wrocław II. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Świt Skolwin
Śląsk Wrocław II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.7
ELO
1530.5
68
ELO · Matches
69
1469.7
Current Team ELO
1530.5
1530.5
Current Opponent ELO
1469.7
-60.82
Current ELO Difference
60.82
0.41
Expected score
0.59
68
History Matches
69
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.66
Overperformance
51.66
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
2.60
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.70
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.41
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
69
1.26
PPG
1.62
33.8%
Win rate
47.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
41.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.2%
69.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.3%
51.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
34
1.42
PPG
1.65
38.7%
Win rate
50.0%
25.8%
Draw rate
14.7%
35.5%
Loss rate
35.3%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
61.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
45.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
31
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.91
76.5%
Scoring rate
84.1%
69.1%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.61
Goals for per game
2.03
74.2%
Scoring rate
85.3%
67.7%
BTTS rate
58.8%
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
40.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
68
History Matches
69
1.57
Goals Mean
1.91
1.20
Goals Std
1.45
76.5%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
48.5%
Scored 2+ rate
55.1%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
30.4%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
2.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.91
Goals against per game
1.42
86.8%
Conceding rate
72.5%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.29
83.9%
Conceding rate
67.6%
2.60
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
68
History Matches
69
1.91
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.49
Conceded Std
1.28
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.6%
30.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.4%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
69
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.96
1.82
Stability score
5.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
64
15
Lead Matches
31
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
61.3%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.65
17
Trailing Matches
12
29.4%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
28
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.61
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.20
Current Competition PPG
1.20
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.27
Portability PPG Range
1.35
53.16
Portability Score
50.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-60.82
PPG-0.36
GF-0.34
GA0.49
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.23
PPG-1.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate7.6%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.49
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate13.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-4.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score3.01
Rest days1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO-60.82
Current Opponent ELO60.82
Current ELO Difference-121.6
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Świt Skolwin

D
Podhale Nowy Targ2–2Świt Skolwin31 Oct · away
Pick: Podhale Nowy Targ 56% · missed
L
Zawisza Bydgoszcz4–2Świt Skolwin23 Oct · away
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 74% · hit
D
Świt Skolwin1–1Olimpia Grudziądz17 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Grudziądz 51% · missed
D
Świt Skolwin1–1Tychy 7130 Aug · home
Pick: Tychy 71 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Śląsk Wrocław II

L
Śląsk Wrocław II0–2Zawisza Bydgoszcz31 Oct · home
Pick: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 45% · hit
L
Polonia Środa3–1Śląsk Wrocław II28 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Środa 40% · hit
L
Sokół Kleczew4–2Śląsk Wrocław II23 Oct · away
Pick: Śląsk Wrocław II 49% · missed
L
Śląsk Wrocław II1–2Avia Świdnik18 Oct · home
Pick: Śląsk Wrocław II 46% · missed
D
Śląsk Wrocław II2–2Legia Warszawa II14 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa II 40% · missed

About this match

Świt Skolwin and Śląsk Wrocław II meet in II Liga - East on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Miejski Skolwin, Szczecin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Świt Skolwin win 31.7%, draw 18.1%, Śląsk Wrocław II win 50.2%. The pick is Śląsk Wrocław II win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.3%. Both teams to score: 60.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.