ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone E Italy Group E - 11 2026

Tau Altopascio vs Terranuova Traiana

Tau Altopascio Home · Elo 1,547
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Terranuova Traiana Away · Elo 1,512
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tau Altopascio win
Tau Altopascio winPick
47.6%
Draw
28.8%
Terranuova Traiana win
23.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.8%
No52.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

Tau Altopascio history53 matches
Terranuova Traiana history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tau Altopascio are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tau Altopascio are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,547 against 1,512. On rating alone Tau Altopascio would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Tau Altopascio score far more

    1.36 goals a game over 53 matches for Tau Altopascio, against 0.84 over 50 for Terranuova Traiana.

  • Terranuova Traiana concede fewer

    Tau Altopascio concede 1.06 a game, Terranuova Traiana 0.94.

  • Tau Altopascio games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Tau Altopascio matches, against 22% for Terranuova Traiana. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tau Altopascio
Terranuova Traiana
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.9
ELO
1512.3
53
ELO · Matches
50
1546.9
Current Team ELO
1512.3
1512.3
Current Opponent ELO
1546.9
34.55
Current ELO Difference
-34.55
0.55
Expected score
0.45
53
History Matches
50
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
52.96
Overperformance
50.58
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
50
1.60
PPG
1.44
43.4%
Win rate
38.0%
30.2%
Draw rate
30.0%
26.4%
Loss rate
32.0%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
56.0%
43.4%
Over 2.5 rate
22.0%
24.5%
Over 3.5 rate
8.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
26
1.88
PPG
1.23
53.8%
Win rate
34.6%
26.9%
Draw rate
19.2%
19.2%
Loss rate
46.2%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.36
Goals for per game
0.84
67.9%
Scoring rate
68.0%
43.4%
BTTS rate
38.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
0.81
76.9%
Scoring rate
65.4%
53.8%
BTTS rate
38.5%
53
History Matches
50
1.36
Goals Mean
0.84
1.21
Goals Std
0.67
67.9%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
16.0%
13.2%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
0.94
64.2%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.27
69.2%
Conceding rate
69.2%
53
History Matches
50
1.06
Conceded Mean
0.94
0.98
Conceded Std
1.01
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.0%
5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
50
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.30
2.10
Stability score
0.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
49
12
Lead Matches
11
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.79
12
Trailing Matches
10
41.7%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.9
Rest days
91.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
40
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
11
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.51
Portability PPG Range
0.21
66.04
Portability Score
82.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.55
PPG0.16
GF0.52
GA0.12
PPG0.65
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.52
Goals Std0.54
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate33.1%
Scored 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score1.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate18.9%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate31.7%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.30
Portability Score-16.32
Rest days90.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO34.55
Current Opponent ELO-34.55
Current ELO Difference69.10
Expected score0.10
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tau Altopascio

L
Flaminia2–0Tau Altopascio1 Nov · away
Pick: Tau Altopascio 39% · missed
W
Tau Altopascio2–1Sasso Marconi Zola25 Oct · home
Pick: Tau Altopascio 56% · hit
L
San Donato Tavarnelle1–0Tau Altopascio18 Oct · away
Pick: Tau Altopascio 36% · missed
W
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano0–1Tau Altopascio4 Oct · away
Pick: Tau Altopascio 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Terranuova Traiana

W
Terranuova Traiana3–2Lucchese1 Nov · home
Pick: Terranuova Traiana 60% · hit
D
Mezzolara1–1Terranuova Traiana25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · hit
W
Terranuova Traiana1–0Scandicci18 Oct · home
Pick: Terranuova Traiana 46% · hit
L
Terranuova Traiana0–3Prato7 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tau Altopascio and Terranuova Traiana meet in Serie D - Girone E on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tau Altopascio win 47.6%, draw 28.8%, Terranuova Traiana win 23.6%. The pick is Tau Altopascio win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.