Tauras vs Minija
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Tauras win
33.2%
Draw Result
27.5%
Minija winPick
39.3%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickMinija win · 39.3%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 27.5%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 57.3%
What happenedOver · 6 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 54.1%
What happenedYes · 3–3
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
27%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 3.6
on average A pick at 39% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
43'
GoalD. Nwegbo
GoalM. Perveinis
45+2' 48'
GoalD. Nwegbo
GoalM. Perveinis
79' 84'
GoalK. Aderounmu
GoalN. Totilas
90' Both teams to score
Yes54.1%
No45.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%
How much we know
Tauras history60 matches
Minija history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full time: 3–3Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Minija are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,602 against 1,603. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Tauras score more
1.85 goals a game over 60 matches for Tauras, against 1.61 over 57 for Minija.
-
Tauras concede fewer
Tauras concede 0.98 a game, Minija 1.12.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
55% of Tauras matches, against 58% for Minija. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1601.6
ELO
1602.9
60
ELO · Matches
57
1601.6
Current Team ELO
1602.9
1602.9
Current Opponent ELO
1601.6
-1.38
Current ELO Difference
1.38
0.50
Expected score
0.50
60
History Matches
57
0.08
Residual Mean
0.09
56.35
Overperformance
56.32
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.50
1.60
Goals for per game
2.10
1.00
Goals against per game
0.30
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.30
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.46
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals 90
60
Matches
57
1.95
PPG
1.75
58.3%
Win rate
54.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
12.3%
21.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
30
2.06
PPG
1.87
64.5%
Win rate
56.7%
12.9%
Draw rate
16.7%
22.6%
Loss rate
26.7%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
64.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
31
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.85
Goals for per game
1.61
85.0%
Scoring rate
70.2%
56.7%
BTTS rate
40.4%
2.06
Goals for per game
1.70
87.1%
Scoring rate
70.0%
58.1%
BTTS rate
36.7%
1.76
Goals for per game
2.65
85.7%
Scoring rate
85.0%
61.9%
BTTS rate
40.0%
60
History Matches
57
1.85
Goals Mean
1.61
1.41
Goals Std
1.53
85.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.2%
55.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
28.1%
2.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.12
65.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
61.3%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.10
Goals against per game
0.55
76.2%
Conceding rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
57
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.01
Conceded Std
1.20
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.8%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.0%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
0.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
60
History Matches
57
0.88
Result entropy
0.87
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.28
11.92
Stability score
13.07
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
59
Eligible Matches
57
24
Lead Matches
23
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
91.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.94
17
Trailing Matches
13
47.1%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.88
Rest days
81.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
35
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.89
27
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals 170
21
Matches
20
1.86
PPG
2.60
57.1%
Win rate
85.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
5.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
10.0%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
21
Current Competition Matches
20
1.86
Current Competition PPG
2.60
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.10
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.74
Portability PPG Range
1.40
61.22
Portability Score
49.51
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
60
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-1.38
PPG0.20
GF0.24
GA-0.14
PPG-0.74
PPG0.20
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate14.8%
Scored 2+ rate9.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.46
Stability score-1.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.50
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate31.7%
Trailing Win Rate15.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.74
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.43
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.66
Portability Score11.71
Rest days-6.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO-1.38
Current Opponent ELO1.38
Current ELO Difference-2.75
Expected score0.00
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Tauras
W
Ekranas1–2Tauras30 Oct · away
Pick: Tauras 73% · hit L
Tauras1–2Be1 NFA24 Oct · home
Pick: Tauras 54% · missed D
Hegelmann II4–4Tauras16 Oct · away
Pick: Tauras 64% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Minija
W
Minija3–1Atmosfera31 Oct · home
Pick: Minija 67% · hit L
BFA2–1Minija24 Oct · away
Pick: Minija 53% · missed L
Minija2–3Babrungas17 Oct · home
Pick: Minija 44% · missed W
Minija3–2Dainava1 Sep · home
Pick: Minija 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Tauras and Minija finished 3–3 in 1 Lyga on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Tauras win 33.2%, draw 27.5%, Minija win 39.3%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.