ScoreProb
Liga MX U21 Mexico Round 16 2026

Tigres UANL U21 vs Cruz Azul U21

Tigres UANL U21 Home · Elo 1,481
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cruz Azul U21 Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cruz Azul U21 win
Tigres UANL U21 win
31.3%
Draw
25.1%
Cruz Azul U21 winPick
43.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

Tigres UANL U21 history30 matches
Cruz Azul U21 history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cruz Azul U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,481 against 1,502. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Tigres UANL U21 score more

    1.40 goals a game over 30 matches for Tigres UANL U21, against 1.16 over 32 for Cruz Azul U21.

  • Cruz Azul U21 concede fewer

    Tigres UANL U21 concede 1.40 a game, Cruz Azul U21 1.13.

  • Tigres UANL U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Tigres UANL U21 matches, against 41% for Cruz Azul U21. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tigres UANL U21
Cruz Azul U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.3
ELO
1502.2
30
ELO · Matches
32
1481.3
Current Team ELO
1502.2
1502.2
Current Opponent ELO
1481.3
-20.92
Current ELO Difference
20.92
0.47
Expected score
0.53
30
History Matches
32
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
48.06
Overperformance
50.19
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.90
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
30
Matches
32
1.40
PPG
1.31
40.0%
Win rate
28.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
46.9%
40.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
16
2.07
PPG
1.13
60.0%
Win rate
25.0%
26.7%
Draw rate
37.5%
13.3%
Loss rate
37.5%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
15
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.16
73.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
59.4%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.19
86.7%
Scoring rate
68.8%
46.7%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
40.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
30
History Matches
32
1.40
Goals Mean
1.16
1.17
Goals Std
0.94
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
43.3%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.13
73.3%
Conceding rate
71.9%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.25
53.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
30
History Matches
32
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.20
Conceded Std
0.99
43.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.1%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
30
History Matches
32
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.19
3.98
Stability score
3.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
32
8
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.81
10
Trailing Matches
8
40.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
30.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
11
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
11
Long Rest History Matches
11
0.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.96
Portability PPG Range
0.37
51.02
Portability Score
72.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
30
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-20.92
PPG0.09
GF0.24
GA0.28
PPG-0.40
PPG0.94
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate21.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate12.1%
Scored 3+ rate10.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.73
Stability score0.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.85
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate28.6%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate2.5%
Trailing Win Rate30.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.59
Portability Score-21.95
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO-20.92
Current Opponent ELO20.92
Current ELO Difference-41.84
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tigres UANL U21

L
Pachuca U212–1Tigres UANL U2131 Oct · away
Pick: Pachuca U21 60% · hit
L
UNAM Pumas U211–0Tigres UANL U2124 Oct · away
Pick: UNAM Pumas U21 60% · hit
W
Tigres UANL U213–1Club Leon U2120 Oct · home
Pick: Club Leon U21 42% · missed
W
Guadalajara Chivas U212–5Tigres UANL U2117 Oct · away
Pick: Guadalajara Chivas U21 66% · missed
L
Santos Laguna U211–0Tigres UANL U2129 Aug · away
Pick: Santos Laguna U21 54% · hit

Cruz Azul U21

L
Queretaro U215–0Cruz Azul U2125 Oct · away
Pick: Cruz Azul U21 36% · missed
L
Pachuca U213–1Cruz Azul U2121 Oct · away
Pick: Pachuca U21 43% · hit
L
Cruz Azul U211–2Juarez U2117 Oct · home
Pick: Cruz Azul U21 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tigres UANL U21 and Cruz Azul U21 meet in Liga MX U21 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tigres UANL U21 win 31.3%, draw 25.1%, Cruz Azul U21 win 43.6%. The pick is Cruz Azul U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.