ScoreProb
Liga MX U21 Mexico Round 16 2026

Toluca U21 vs Monterrey U21

Toluca U21 Home · Elo 1,540
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Monterrey U21 Away · Elo 1,501
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Toluca U21 win
Toluca U21 winPick
50.3%
Draw
24.5%
Monterrey U21 win
25.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

Toluca U21 history31 matches
Monterrey U21 history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Toluca U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Toluca U21 are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,501. On rating alone Toluca U21 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.71 goals a game over 31 matches for Toluca U21, against 1.56 over 27 for Monterrey U21.

  • Toluca U21 concede fewer

    Toluca U21 concede 1.26 a game, Monterrey U21 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Toluca U21 matches, against 56% for Monterrey U21. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Toluca U21
Monterrey U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1539.8
ELO
1501.4
31
ELO · Matches
27
1539.8
Current Team ELO
1501.4
1501.4
Current Opponent ELO
1539.8
38.42
Current ELO Difference
-38.42
0.56
Expected score
0.44
31
History Matches
27
0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
53.71
Overperformance
49.98
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
31
Matches
27
1.55
PPG
1.33
38.7%
Win rate
37.0%
38.7%
Draw rate
22.2%
22.6%
Loss rate
40.7%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
35.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
14
2.07
PPG
1.07
60.0%
Win rate
28.6%
26.7%
Draw rate
21.4%
13.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
15
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.56
83.9%
Scoring rate
81.5%
64.5%
BTTS rate
63.0%
2.27
Goals for per game
1.36
93.3%
Scoring rate
85.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
31
History Matches
27
1.71
Goals Mean
1.56
1.25
Goals Std
1.29
83.9%
Scored 1+ rate
81.5%
54.8%
Scored 2+ rate
37.0%
16.1%
Scored 3+ rate
25.9%
2.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.44
74.2%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.57
73.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
31
History Matches
27
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.44
0.98
Conceded Std
1.17
41.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
6.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
31
History Matches
27
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.45
2.53
Stability score
2.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
25
13
Lead Matches
8
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.71
8
Trailing Matches
8
25.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
11
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
13
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.40
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.30
Portability PPG Range
0.08
76.92
Portability Score
92.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
31
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO38.42
PPG0.22
GF0.15
GA-0.19
PPG0.40
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate2.4%
Scored 2+ rate17.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.91
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score-0.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate6.7%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.22
Portability Score-15.51
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.75
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO38.42
Current Opponent ELO-38.42
Current ELO Difference76.83
Expected score0.11
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance3.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Toluca U21

D
Club America U210–0Toluca U2131 Oct · away
Pick: Toluca U21 38% · missed
W
Club Leon U211–4Toluca U2124 Oct · away
Pick: Toluca U21 39% · hit
W
Toluca U215–0Club Tijuana U2121 Oct · home
Pick: Toluca U21 49% · hit
W
Toluca U214–1Atl. San Luis U2117 Oct · home
Pick: Toluca U21 52% · hit
W
Toluca U212–1Juarez U2130 Aug · home
Pick: Toluca U21 49% · hit

Monterrey U21

W
Monterrey U213–0Club Tijuana U2131 Oct · home
Pick: Monterrey U21 41% · hit
W
Monterrey U214–1Guadalajara Chivas U2124 Oct · home
Pick: Monterrey U21 39% · hit
W
Monterrey U212–0Pachuca U2118 Oct · home
Pick: Monterrey U21 40% · hit
W
Monterrey U214–1Atl. San Luis U2130 Aug · home
Pick: Monterrey U21 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Toluca U21 and Monterrey U21 meet in Liga MX U21 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Toluca U21 win 50.3%, draw 24.5%, Monterrey U21 win 25.2%. The pick is Toluca U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.