ScoreProb
First League North Macedonia Round 13 2026

Tikveš vs Skopje

Tikveš Home · Elo 1,533
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Skopje Away · Elo 1,596
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:14 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tikveš win
Tikveš winPick
55.0%
Draw
20.0%
Skopje win
25.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%

How much we know

Tikveš history58 matches
Skopje history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:14 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Tikveš are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Skopje are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,533. On rating alone Skopje would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Skopje score more

    1.59 goals a game over 58 matches for Tikveš, against 1.76 over 51 for Skopje.

  • Skopje concede fewer

    Tikveš concede 1.38 a game, Skopje 1.00.

  • Tikveš games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Tikveš matches, against 45% for Skopje. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tikveš
Skopje@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1533.4
ELO
1595.6
58
ELO · Matches
51
1533.4
Current Team ELO
1595.6
1595.6
Current Opponent ELO
1533.4
-62.28
Current ELO Difference
62.28
0.41
Expected score
0.59
58
History Matches
51
0.03
Residual Mean
0.09
52.19
Overperformance
56.41
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.00
2.10
Goals for per game
1.80
2.10
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.94
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
2.26
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
51
1.41
PPG
1.80
39.7%
Win rate
54.9%
22.4%
Draw rate
15.7%
37.9%
Loss rate
29.4%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
53.4%
Over 2.5 rate
45.1%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
27
1.52
PPG
1.56
44.8%
Win rate
48.1%
17.2%
Draw rate
11.1%
37.9%
Loss rate
40.7%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
29
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.76
70.7%
Scoring rate
74.5%
46.6%
BTTS rate
39.2%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.44
72.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
48.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.75
Goals for per game
0.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
51
1.59
Goals Mean
1.76
1.68
Goals Std
1.85
70.7%
Scored 1+ rate
74.5%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
20.7%
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.00
70.7%
Conceding rate
62.7%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.19
69.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.75
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
51
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.51
Conceded Std
1.01
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
51
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
2.50
Goal Difference Std
2.31
2.63
Stability score
10.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
49
18
Lead Matches
19
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.89
18
Trailing Matches
13
22.2%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.50
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.77
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.87
64.17
Portability Score
39.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-62.28
PPG-0.39
GF-0.18
GA0.38
PPG1.25
PPG-0.04
PPG0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.16
History Matches7
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-8.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.30
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate4.7%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.50
Portability PPG Range-1.12
Portability Score24.93
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-62.28
Current Opponent ELO62.28
Current ELO Difference-124.6
Expected score-0.18
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tikveš

W
Vardar Skopje1–3Tikveš28 Oct · away
Pick: Vardar Skopje 64% · missed
W
Tikveš3–1Bashkimi Kumanovo25 Oct · home
Pick: Tikveš 60% · hit
D
Aresimi1–1Tikveš19 Oct · away
Pick: Tikveš 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Skopje

D
Skopje0–0Sileks2 Nov · home
Pick: Sileks 45% · missed
W
Skopje1–0Novaci28 Oct · home
Pick: Skopje 56% · hit
L
Struga4–0Skopje24 Oct · away
Pick: Struga 57% · hit
L
Skopje1–3Shkendija18 Oct · home
Pick: Shkendija 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tikveš and Skopje meet in First League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:14 UTC: Tikveš win 55.0%, draw 20.0%, Skopje win 25.1%. The pick is Tikveš win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.0%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.