ScoreProb
Superliga Albania Round 11 2026

Tirana vs Teuta Durrës

Tirana Home · Elo 1,524
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Teuta Durrës Away · Elo 1,503
Arena Kombetare, Tirana Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Teuta Durrës win
Tirana win
32.4%
Draw
29.5%
Teuta Durrës winPick
38.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.7%
No53.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.8%
Under 2.562.2%

How much we know

Tirana history55 matches
Teuta Durrës history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Teuta Durrës are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,524 against 1,503. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Tirana score more

    1.07 goals a game over 55 matches for Tirana, against 0.81 over 57 for Teuta Durrës.

  • Teuta Durrës concede fewer

    Tirana concede 1.31 a game, Teuta Durrës 0.89.

  • Tirana games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Tirana matches, against 26% for Teuta Durrës. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tirana
Teuta Durrës
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.6
ELO
1503.2
55
ELO · Matches
57
1523.6
Current Team ELO
1503.2
1503.2
Current Opponent ELO
1523.6
20.37
Current ELO Difference
-20.37
0.53
Expected score
0.47
55
History Matches
57
0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
51.86
Overperformance
50.10
0.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
0.90
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
57
1.20
PPG
1.26
29.1%
Win rate
28.1%
32.7%
Draw rate
42.1%
38.2%
Loss rate
29.8%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
45.6%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
26.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.3%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
1.25
PPG
1.00
32.1%
Win rate
17.2%
28.6%
Draw rate
48.3%
39.3%
Loss rate
34.5%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
34.5%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
17.2%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
6.9%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.95
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
0.81
72.7%
Scoring rate
59.6%
52.7%
BTTS rate
40.4%
1.04
Goals for per game
0.52
64.3%
Scoring rate
44.8%
42.9%
BTTS rate
27.6%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
57
1.07
Goals Mean
0.81
0.97
Goals Std
0.80
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
59.6%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
17.5%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
3.5%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
0.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
0.89
74.5%
Conceding rate
57.9%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.83
71.4%
Conceding rate
51.7%
3.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
57
1.31
Conceded Mean
0.89
1.20
Conceded Std
0.97
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.8%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
0.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
48.3%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
55.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
48.3%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
55.2%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
57
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.62
Goal Difference Std
0.96
0.57
Stability score
1.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
57
15
Lead Matches
10
53.3%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.60
17
Trailing Matches
12
17.6%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.73
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.95
Portability PPG Range
0.28
53.49
Portability Score
81.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO20.37
PPG-0.06
GF0.27
GA0.41
PPG-1.00
PPG0.25
PPG0.80
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate13.1%
Scored 2+ rate2.5%
Scored 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.66
Stability score-0.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-27.62
Rest days-1.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO20.37
Current Opponent ELO-20.37
Current ELO Difference40.74
Expected score0.06
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.46

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tirana

L
Tirana1–2Egnatia Rrogozhinë1 Nov · home
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 52% · hit
L
Vllaznia Shkodër2–0Tirana24 Oct · away
Pick: Vllaznia Shkodër 59% · hit
W
Tirana1–0Laci17 Oct · home
Pick: Laci 51% · missed
L
Teuta Durrës3–1Tirana30 Aug · away
Pick: Teuta Durrës 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Teuta Durrës

L
Teuta Durrës0–1Partizani2 Nov · home
Pick: Teuta Durrës 34% · missed
L
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1–0Teuta Durrës29 Oct · away
Pick: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 65% · hit
D
Teuta Durrës0–0AF Elbasani24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 34% · hit
W
Dinamo Tirana0–2Teuta Durrës16 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Tirana 53% · missed
W
Teuta Durrës3–1Tirana30 Aug · home
Pick: Teuta Durrës 50% · hit

About this match

Tirana and Teuta Durrës meet in Superliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Arena Kombetare, Tirana. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tirana win 32.4%, draw 29.5%, Teuta Durrës win 38.1%. The pick is Teuta Durrës win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.8%. Both teams to score: 46.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.