Torre del Mar vs Malaga City
Match result probability Model pick: Torre del Mar win
Torre del Mar winPick
65.0%
Draw
22.2%
Malaga City win
12.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.1%
No52.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%
How much we know
Torre del Mar history55 matches
Malaga City history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Torre del Mar
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Torre del Mar are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Torre del Mar are rated 99 Elo points higher
Elo 1,527 against 1,428. On rating alone Torre del Mar would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Torre del Mar score more
1.20 goals a game over 55 matches for Torre del Mar, against 0.94 over 16 for Malaga City.
-
Torre del Mar concede fewer
Torre del Mar concede 0.82 a game, Malaga City 2.00.
-
Malaga City games more often go over 2.5 goals
36% of Torre del Mar matches, against 63% for Malaga City. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Malaga City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1527.3
ELO
1428.2
55
ELO · Matches
16
1527.3
Current Team ELO
1428.2
1428.2
Current Opponent ELO
1527.3
99.15
Current ELO Difference
-99.15
0.64
Expected score
0.36
55
History Matches
16
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.23
51.82
Overperformance
39.65
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.80
0.50
Goals for per game
1.40
0.70
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
16
1.60
PPG
0.50
43.6%
Win rate
12.5%
29.1%
Draw rate
12.5%
27.3%
Loss rate
75.0%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
10.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
9
1.93
PPG
0.11
57.1%
Win rate
0.0%
21.4%
Draw rate
11.1%
21.4%
Loss rate
88.9%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
28
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.20
Goals for per game
0.94
70.9%
Scoring rate
50.0%
41.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.56
82.1%
Scoring rate
33.3%
39.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
55
History Matches
16
1.20
Goals Mean
0.94
1.12
Goals Std
1.20
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
30.9%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.56
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.82
Goals against per game
2.00
56.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.68
Goals against per game
2.44
42.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
16
0.82
Conceded Mean
2.00
0.85
Conceded Std
0.94
21.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.5%
3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.3%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
2.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
16
0.98
Result entropy
0.67
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.71
2.11
Stability score
33.04
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
16
14
Lead Matches
1
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.00
9
Trailing Matches
8
22.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
168.3
Rest days
546.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
6
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.17
21
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.09
Portability PPG Std
—
0.21
Portability PPG Range
—
85.21
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO99.15
PPG1.10
GF0.26
GA-1.18
PPG1.82
PPG-0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches39
Clean-sheet rate43.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate57.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.49
History Matches39
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate20.9%
Scored 2+ rate5.9%
Scored 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.94
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches39
Conceded Mean-1.18
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate43.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.41
Conceded 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Conceded Mean-1.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches39
Result entropy0.31
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-30.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.21
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate92.9%
Lead Points Retention0.93
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate22.2%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.57
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-378.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.58
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.83
Current Team ELO99.15
Current Opponent ELO-99.15
Current ELO Difference198.3
Expected score0.28
History Matches39
Residual Mean0.26
Overperformance12.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Torre del Mar
D
Huétor Vega0–0Torre del Mar25 Oct · away
Pick: Torre del Mar 37% · missed L
Torre del Mar0–1Arenas Armilla4 Oct · home
Pick: Torre del Mar 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Malaga City
L
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno4–1Malaga City25 Oct · away
Pick: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 60% · hit L
Malaga City0–1Marbelli4 Oct · home
Pick: Marbelli 50% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Torre del Mar and Malaga City meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Torre del Mar win 65.0%, draw 22.2%, Malaga City win 12.7%. The pick is Torre del Mar win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.