ScoreProb
Ligue 1 France Round 10 2026

Toulouse vs Strasbourg

Toulouse Home · Elo 1,501
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Strasbourg Away · Elo 1,537
Stadium Municipal, Toulouse Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Toulouse win
Toulouse winPick
46.4%
Draw
22.1%
Strasbourg win
31.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%

How much we know

Toulouse history64 matches
Strasbourg history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Toulouse are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Strasbourg are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,501. On rating alone Strasbourg would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Strasbourg score more

    1.33 goals a game over 64 matches for Toulouse, against 1.58 over 79 for Strasbourg.

  • Strasbourg concede fewer

    Toulouse concede 1.59 a game, Strasbourg 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Toulouse matches, against 59% for Strasbourg. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Toulouse
Strasbourg@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.5
ELO
1537.5
64
ELO · Matches
79
1500.5
Current Team ELO
1537.5
1537.5
Current Opponent ELO
1500.5
-36.95
Current ELO Difference
36.95
0.45
Expected score
0.55
64
History Matches
79
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
50.65
Overperformance
51.70
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
3.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
2.10
Goals against per game
3.10
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.10
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
79
1.17
PPG
1.61
29.7%
Win rate
46.8%
28.1%
Draw rate
20.3%
42.2%
Loss rate
32.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.5%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.2%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
40
1.15
PPG
1.48
26.5%
Win rate
42.5%
35.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
38.2%
Loss rate
37.5%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
34
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.58
71.9%
Scoring rate
75.9%
57.8%
BTTS rate
58.2%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.43
70.6%
Scoring rate
72.5%
55.9%
BTTS rate
55.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
64
History Matches
79
1.33
Goals Mean
1.58
1.20
Goals Std
1.35
71.9%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
46.8%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
22.8%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.59
Goals against per game
1.39
79.7%
Conceding rate
73.4%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.53
76.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
4.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
79
1.59
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.48
Conceded Std
1.33
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
79
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.89
1.57
Stability score
4.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
78
16
Lead Matches
26
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.8%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.86
24
Trailing Matches
19
33.3%
Non-loss rate
42.1%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
21.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
14
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
35
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
28
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-4.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.71
1.20
Portability PPG Range
2.23
54.96
Portability Score
41.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-36.95
PPG-0.44
GF-0.25
GA0.20
PPG0.00
PPG-0.33
PPG1.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate4.1%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate1.9%
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.78
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate4.2%
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.79
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-3.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.71
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-1.03
Portability Score13.65
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-36.95
Current Opponent ELO36.95
Current ELO Difference-73.90
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Toulouse

L
Marseille2–0Toulouse1 Nov · away
Pick: Marseille 61% · hit
W
Le Mans0–3Toulouse16 Oct · away
Pick: Le Mans 60% · missed
D
Stade Brestois 292–2Toulouse29 Aug · away
Pick: Stade Brestois 29 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Strasbourg

W
Strasbourg5–1Auxerre1 Nov · home
Pick: Strasbourg 53% · hit
L
Rennes3–0Strasbourg25 Oct · away
Pick: Rennes 51% · hit
L
Strasbourg1–3Paris Saint Germain17 Oct · home
Pick: Paris Saint Germain 68% · hit
W
Strasbourg2–1Lens29 Aug · home
Pick: Lens 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Toulouse and Strasbourg meet in Ligue 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Stadium Municipal, Toulouse. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Toulouse win 46.4%, draw 22.1%, Strasbourg win 31.4%. The pick is Toulouse win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.