ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Troon FC vs Dalbeattie Star

Troon FC Home · Elo 1,503
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dalbeattie Star Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Troon FC win
Troon FC winPick
60.4%
Draw
18.8%
Dalbeattie Star win
20.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.3%
Under 2.541.7%

How much we know

Troon FC history6 matches
Dalbeattie Star history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Troon FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Troon FC are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,503 against 1,475. On rating alone Troon FC would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Troon FC score far more

    1.83 goals a game over 6 matches for Troon FC, against 0.60 over 5 for Dalbeattie Star.

  • Troon FC concede fewer

    Troon FC concede 1.50 a game, Dalbeattie Star 2.00.

  • Troon FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Troon FC matches, against 40% for Dalbeattie Star. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Troon FC
Dalbeattie Star
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1503.2
ELO
1474.7
6
ELO · Matches
5
1503.2
Current Team ELO
1474.7
1474.7
Current Opponent ELO
1503.2
28.44
Current ELO Difference
-28.44
0.54
Expected score
0.46
6
History Matches
5
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.27
49.90
Overperformance
44.61
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.40
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
6
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
0.40
1.83
Goals for per game
0.60
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.46
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.67
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
0.40
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
0.67
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
2
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.83
Goals for per game
0.60
66.7%
Scoring rate
40.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.83
Goals for per game
0.60
66.7%
Scoring rate
40.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
6
History Matches
5
1.83
Goals Mean
0.60
1.46
Goals Std
0.80
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
40.0%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
6
History Matches
5
1.50
Conceded Mean
2.00
0.96
Conceded Std
1.67
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
5
0.63
Result entropy
0.61
2.05
Goal Difference Std
1.50
36.91
Stability score
38.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Lead Win RateLead Points Retention
6
Eligible Matches
5
0
Lead Matches
0
4
Trailing Matches
4
25.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
2
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.25
1
Long Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
6
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
0.40
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
6
Current Competition Matches
5
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.40
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.40
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO28.44
PPG1.10
GF1.23
GA-0.50
PPG1.10
PPG2.33
PPG1.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.67
History Matches1
Goals Mean1.23
Goals Std0.66
Scored 1+ rate26.7%
Scored 2+ rate46.7%
Scored 3+ rate33.3%
Venue Goals Mean2.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.23
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-0.72
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.56
Stability score-1.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.73
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches1
Current Team ELO28.44
Current Opponent ELO-28.44
Current ELO Difference56.87
Expected score0.08
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.27
Overperformance5.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Troon FC

L
Troon FC1–2Largs Thistle31 Oct · home
Pick: Largs Thistle 38% · hit
W
Renfrew4–5Troon FC28 Oct · away
Pick: Troon FC 60% · hit
W
Albion Rovers1–2Troon FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Troon FC 40% · hit
L
Troon FC1–3Cumbernauld Colts29 Aug · home
Pick: Troon FC 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dalbeattie Star

L
Dalbeattie Star2–8Clydebank31 Oct · home
Pick: Clydebank 69% · hit
L
Kilwinning Rangers4–0Dalbeattie Star17 Oct · away
Pick: Kilwinning Rangers 70% · hit
L
Johnstone Burgh4–0Dalbeattie Star29 Aug · away
Pick: Johnstone Burgh 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Troon FC and Dalbeattie Star meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Troon FC win 60.4%, draw 18.8%, Dalbeattie Star win 20.8%. The pick is Troon FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.3%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.