Trostianets vs Metalurh Zaporizhya
Trostianets
Full time
3–0
Half time 1–0
Wed 4 Nov · 09:00 UTC
Metalurh Zaporizhya
What we said before kickoff Result: Trostianets win
Trostianets winPick Result
58.3%
Draw
25.6%
Metalurh Zaporizhya win
16.2%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickTrostianets win · 58.3%
What happenedTrostianets win · we gave it 58.3%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 50.4%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 56.2%
What happenedNo · 3–0
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Trostianets win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
58%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.7
on average A pick at 58% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes43.8%
No56.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
How much we know
Trostianets history40 matches
Metalurh Zaporizhya history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 09:00 UTC
- Full time: 3–0Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Trostianets are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Trostianets are rated 126 Elo points higher
Elo 1,518 against 1,392. On rating alone Trostianets would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.
-
Trostianets score far more
1.35 goals a game over 40 matches for Trostianets, against 0.61 over 44 for Metalurh Zaporizhya.
-
Trostianets concede fewer
Trostianets concede 0.98 a game, Metalurh Zaporizhya 1.89.
-
Metalurh Zaporizhya games more often go over 2.5 goals
45% of Trostianets matches, against 55% for Metalurh Zaporizhya. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trostianets
Metalurh Zaporizhya
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1517.6
ELO
1391.8
40
ELO · Matches
44
1517.6
Current Team ELO
1391.8
1391.8
Current Opponent ELO
1517.6
125.8
Current ELO Difference
-125.8
0.67
Expected score
0.33
40
History Matches
44
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.12
51.41
Overperformance
41.49
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.70
1.20
Goals for per game
0.50
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals 90
40
Matches
44
1.55
PPG
0.70
42.5%
Win rate
13.6%
27.5%
Draw rate
29.5%
30.0%
Loss rate
56.8%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
23
1.75
PPG
0.78
50.0%
Win rate
17.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.1%
25.0%
Loss rate
56.5%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
20
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.35
Goals for per game
0.61
70.0%
Scoring rate
45.5%
45.0%
BTTS rate
40.9%
1.55
Goals for per game
0.61
80.0%
Scoring rate
43.5%
45.0%
BTTS rate
34.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
40
History Matches
44
1.35
Goals Mean
0.61
1.19
Goals Std
0.80
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
45.5%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
11.4%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
4.5%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
0.61
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.89
65.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.74
60.0%
Conceding rate
73.9%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
40
History Matches
44
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.89
0.96
Conceded Std
1.45
22.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.3%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.4%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
56.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
56.5%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
40
History Matches
44
0.98
Result entropy
0.87
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.74
1.71
Stability score
13.24
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
37
Eligible Matches
44
13
Lead Matches
4
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.67
9
Trailing Matches
17
22.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.34
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.96
Rest days
72.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.68
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.76
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
100.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.38
58.74
Portability Score
75.70
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
40
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO125.8
PPG0.85
GF0.74
GA-0.91
PPG0.33
PPG0.97
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate16.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.74
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate24.5%
Scored 2+ rate28.6%
Scored 3+ rate15.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.94
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.91
Conceded Std-0.49
Clean-sheet rate16.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Conceded Mean-0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-11.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate34.6%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate22.2%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.48
Portability Score-16.96
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.92
Current Team ELO125.8
Current Opponent ELO-125.8
Current ELO Difference251.5
Expected score0.35
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance9.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Trostianets
L
Karbon Cherkasy2–1Trostianets30 Oct · away
Pick: Karbon Cherkasy 35% · hit D
Trostianets1–1Atlet24 Oct · home
Pick: Trostianets 56% · missed L
Lozova1–0Trostianets17 Oct · away
Pick: Trostianets 58% · missed W
Oleksandria II0–1Trostianets12 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria II 35% · missed L
Trostianets2–4Chernihiv6 Oct · home
Pick: Trostianets 35% · missed Metalurh Zaporizhya
W
Metalurh Zaporizhya1–0Rebel30 Oct · home
Pick: Metalurh Zaporizhya 47% · hit L
Penuel2–0Metalurh Zaporizhya25 Oct · away
Pick: Metalurh Zaporizhya 38% · missed W
Metalurh Zaporizhya2–0Oleksandria II17 Oct · home
Pick: Oleksandria II 39% · missed L
Rebel2–1Metalurh Zaporizhya29 Aug · away
Pick: Rebel 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Trostianets and Metalurh Zaporizhya finished 3–0 in Druha Liga on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Trostianets win 58.3%, draw 25.6%, Metalurh Zaporizhya win 16.2%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.